Results tagged ‘ Seattle Mariners ’
Carlos Correa: Real Deal or Future Bust? #Astros
When the Astros drafted Puerto Rican shortstop Carlos Correa first overall, they picked the player with the most potential for impact – and most potential to become a complete bust – in the draft. A tremendous athlete, Correa has been lauded for his quick hands and potential at the plate, his grace and strong arm in the field, and his speed, Correa is a 6’3” shortstop approaching 200 pounds at age 17. Much of the commentary has focused on Correa’s potential and his age – Correa won’t turn 18 until September 22 (the same day as Tommy Lasorda will turn 85), which further underscores his potential for improvement, especially given the results of a groundbreaking study published by Rany Jazayerli at Baseball Prospectus.
Source: Houston Chronicle
After Correa signed quickly – and for under slot - there was a lot of buzz around whether the Astros picked the best available player, a player who would sign quickly for less than the maximum, or had hastily gone Matt Bush on the organization. Personally, I think it’s a great move. The Astros got a top flight talent at a premium position and saved some money to spread to other picks.
But I began to wonder out of the shortstops drafted out of high school in the first round of the major league draft:
- How many made it to the major leagues;
- Were successful major leaguers; and
- How many remained shortstops?
In order to answer these questions, I used MLB draft data from Baseball-Reference.com to pull all of the draft picks from 1990-2007 for the first two rounds. Here is the full data set via Google Docs (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjuFn-ctXd3VdF9jQkVtMC03dE9TeENMYVg2SHZJOFE).
I filtered for:
- Listed position when being drafted, assuming the likelihood of a player moving TO shortstop was exceedingly low;
- Filtered for shortstop (as opposed to college players);
- Filtered for players drafted out of short stop; and
- Looked into only the first round (as second round picks would rarely be a prospect of the level of Correa).
Here’s what I found:
38 players fit the requirements, including:
- Successful picks (WAR over 15): Chipper Jones (1/1 Braves, 1990), Derek Jeter (1/6 Yankees, 1992), and Alex Rodriguez (1/1 Mariners, 1993);
- Good picks (WAR over 5): Pokey Reese (1/20 Reds, 1991), Michael Cuddyer (1/9 Twins, 1997), and Felipe Lopez (1/8, Blue Jays 1998);
- Interesting picks (for various reasons): Josh Booty (1/5 Marlins 1994) and Sergio Santos (1/27 Diamondbacks, 2002);
- Colossal flops: Brandon Wood (1/23 Angels, 2003) and Matt Bush (1/1 Padres, 2004); and
- Players whose places have yet to be determined: BJ Upton (1/2 Rays, 2002), Justin Upton (1/1 Diamondbacks, 2005), and Mike Moustakas (1/2 Royals, 2007) – though both Upton Brothers are already successful with WAR over 11.
As you may notice, the success rate is exceedingly low, with only a few players who are even potential hall of famers and almost as many players are colossal flops as good players. A total of 13 never made it to the major leagues in any capacity and five appearing in under 100 games.
Successful picks:
- Chipper Jones: Basically a third baseman from the start of his major league, though he played a little time in left field and even less at short stop. What’s most amazing is was not even supposed to be the #1 pick – more on that here.
- Derek Jeter: A short stop from day one and has not played another defensive position in the major leagues (unless you count his games at DH). Not the greatest range but sure hands and makes it look good.
- Alex Rodriguez: Historic talent and historic centaur.
Good Picks:
- Pokey Reese: Basically a defense-only player but, wow, could he pick it.
- Michael Cuddyer: According to Baseball-Reference.com, he has never played short stop in the major leagues, primarily a right fielder (731 games), first baseman (214 games), and a third baseman (214 games). Stopped playing shortstop after making 61(!) errors while playing for the Fort Wayne Wizards of the Midwest League at the age of 19.
- Felipe Lopez: One good offensive year (291/352/486 in 2005), but appeared in 1185 games across 11 major league seasons. He was a better hitter – and a worse fielder – than I realized.
Interesting Picks:
- Josh Booty: After signing a contract reported to be worth $1.2 million, Booty struck out a lot and hit for some power. Gave up baseball after 1998 and went to LSU to be their starting quarterback before being drafted by the Seattle Seahawks in the 6th round… and never appear in the NFL.
- Sergio Santos: Santos was a good prospect who never hit enough and made a lot of errors; then he became a relief pitcher and is laughing at all of us.
Colossal Flops:
- Brandon Wood: Read about him here.
- Matt Bush: Read about him here.
Players Whose Places Have Yet to be Determined:
- BJ Upton: Doesn’t walk, power is streaky, good center fielder. Looks like he will stall out in the “Good Pick” category.
- Justin Upton: The better of the Upton brothers (so far), could be a perennial MVP candidate and on pace to join the “Successful Pick” category.
- Mike Moustakas: Too little time to judge, but hitting 278/346/480 is a very good start.
So what does this mean?
Out of the 38, 13 (34%) never made it to the major leagues, 17 made it and had WAR below 5 (45%), for a total of 30/38 (79%). Of the successful ones, only Derek Jeter (98.6%), Felipe Lopez (53.5%), and Alex Rodriguez (51.5%) have primarily been shortstops. Pokey Reese primarily played second base with a fair amount of time at shortstop, Chipper Jones only appeared at shortstop more than six times once (38 in 1996), and Michael Cuddyer is the definition of a defensive tweener.
In short (pun intended), Carlos Correa is probably not going to reach his potential, but then again, neither are the rest of the first round picks, so the Astros made a great pick by grabbing for the stars because, frankly, you seem to have about as good of a chance of drafting Matt Bush with the #1 overall pick as picking Alex Rodriguez.
Also, because someone actually asked, here’s WAR for #1 overall picks that were drafted out of High School:
Until next time, follow me @HypeProspect.
Sources:
http://www.baseball-reference.com
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=correa000car
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lasorto01.shtml
http://www.perfectgame.org/players/playerprofile.aspx?ID=279388
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17173
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15295
No Hitters – Quickest First No Hitter, Slowest to First, and So Much More
As the attention of the sports world turned to Flushing, New York (not New York, New York, no matter how many times Jon Miller incorrectly identified it) last week and Seattle Washington last night, I pondered a number of questions about no-hitters, one the most random and fascinating events in sports.
Question 1: What was the longest no-hitter?
Answer 1: The longest a pitcher ever had a no-hitter (or perfect game) was Harvey Haddix on May 26, 1959. Haddix had a perfect game for 12 innings (ending with a Don Hoak error) and a no-hitter for 12.1 innings (a Joe Adcock sort-of-double ended the game). Adcock actually hit a home run to end the game, but Hank Aaron left the base paths after touching second base, so only Felix Mantilla was credited as scoring. His opponent was Lew Burdette, who allowed 12 hits, no walks, and struck two batters out in his 13-inning shutout. As a side note, Haddix absolutely dominated a very, very good Milwaukee Braves team that day. On that team were Hall of Famer Eddie Mathews (who would hit 306/390/593 that year), Hall of Famer Hank Aaron (355/401/636), and Joe Adcock (292/339/535); plus the Braves went 86-70. Of course, MLB later invalidated Haddix’s efforts, so the answer becomes more complex, as it’s either (a) Sam Kimber, who threw an 11-inning no hitter on October 4, 1884 or, if you don’t consider records before 1901, (b) the record becomes Hooks Wiltse, who threw 10 no-hit innings against the Philadelphia Phillies in 1908; Fred Toney, who threw 10 no-hit innings against the Chicago Cubs in 1917; and Jim Maloney, who threw 10 no-hit innings in 1965 against the Philadelphia Phillies. So, the answer is “it depends.”
Question 2: What was the earliest into a career a pitcher threw a no-hitter?
Answer 2: On October 4, 1891, Ted Breitenstein threw a no hitter in his first major league start (at the time there was no American League, just the National League and the American Association). After that, 21 rookies have pitched no-hitters, but the quickest was Bobo Holloman, a 30-year old rookie who made 22 appearances in the Majors and 301 in the minors, on May 6, 1953. Holloman also went 2/3 with 3 RBI that day – the only times on base and RBI of his career.
Question 3: What was the quickest into a team’s existence that a pitcher threw a no-hitter? (H/T Melissa for the question)
Answer 3: The Montreal Expos (now the Washington Nationals), when Bill Stoneman threw a no-hitter on April 17, 1969, in the NINTH game of their existence. Sam Kimber threw a no-hitter for the Brooklyn Superbas (now the Los Angeles Dodgers, more on them later) on October 4, 1884 against the Toledo Blue Stockings. A number of teams have had one thrown in their second year of existence, including the Los Angeles Angels (Bo Belinsky in 1962), Houston Astros (then Colt .45′s, by Don Nottebart), and Chicago White Sox (Nixey Callahan). See the image below:
Question 4: Have any great pitchers been the first pitcher to throw a no-hitter for a team or just a lot of random pitchers?
Answer 4: It appears to be a solid mix of both. I don’t pretend to have great knowledge of baseball before the 1950s (or the 1980s other than Hall of Famers and random things), but a number of great pitchers are on the list, such as Cy Young, Randy Johnson, Christy Mathewson, and Walter Johnson … and the list is also littered with utterly forgettable pitchers (I have already mentioned Bill Stoneman). History is littered with Hall of Fame pitchers who threw no hitters, including Pud Galvin, Charles “Old Hoss” Radbourn (who you should follow on Twitter, seriously), Cy Young, Big Ed Walsh (who was listed at 6’1″, 193), Christy Mathewson, Walter Johnson, Bob Feller, Warren Spahn, Sandy Koufax, Juan Marichal, James “Catfish” Hunter, Gaylord Perry, Jim Palmer, Bob Gibson, Nolan Ryan, Phil Niekro, Dennis Eckersley (1977, with the Cleveland Indians), Bert Blyleven, and Tom Seaver (with the Reds – ugh). I would imagine this list Hall of Fame list will shortly include Randy Johnson.
Question 5: You said Randy Johnson was the first pitcher to throw a no-hitter for his team. Was it for the Diamondbacks or the Mariners?
Answer 5: Both. June 2, 1990 for the Mariners (their 14th season) and May 18, 2004 for the Diamondbacks (their 7th season). Johnson is the only pitcher to be on this list twice, though Ubaldo Jimenez, Matt Garza, or Johan Santana could join him if they play for the Padres or baseball expands again, or Bob Gibson bucks up and makes a comeback.
Question 6: What is the longest amount of time between a pitcher throwing no-hitters?
Answer 6: Cy Young threw three, his first on September 18, 1897 and his last on June 30, 1908 – a span of more than ten years. Bob Feller threw his first no-hitter on April 16, 1940 and his last on July 1, 1951 – a span of more than eleven years. Randy Johnson threw his first on June 2, 1990 and his second on May 18, 2004, a span of nearly 14 years. Nolan Ryan threw his first no-hitter on May 15, 1973 and his seventh on May 1, 1991, a span of nearly 18 years. Think about that – he went nearly 18 years between no-hitters when the average MLB career is ONLY 5.6 years.
Question 7: What is the shortest time between no-hitters?
Answer 7: For a single pitcher or a team, Johnny Vander Meer threw no hitters on June 11 and June 15, 1938 (more amazing is that, in those two starts he struck out 11 and walked 11). Hall of Famer Ernie Lombardi caught them both. During a season, Gaylor Perry (with the San Francisco Giants) no-hit the St. Louis Cardinals (beating Cy Young and MVP Bob Gibson) on September 17, 1968. The following day, Ray Washburn of the Cardinals returned the favor, no-hitting the Giants (his pitching counterpart, Bobby Bolin went eight innings, allowing only two runs. Frank Linzy pitched the ninth after Bolin was lifted for a pinch hitter in the bottom of the 8th).
Question 8: Has a team ever lost a no-hitter?
Answer 8: Amazingly, it has happened twice. The Houston Colt .45′s (now Astros) lost Ken Johnson‘s no-hitter on April 23, 1964 due to an error (by Johnson, no less), a groundout, and another error (this time by the second baseman). The winning pitcher was Joe Nuxhall, who pitched two-thirds of an inning in 1944 at the age of 15, allowing five runs on two hits and five walks. On April 30, 1967, Steve Barber walked TEN en route to picking up a 2-1 loss to the Detroit Tigers. Barber only went 8.2 innings, walking three in the ninth before Stu Miller came in to end the game. (Actually, that’s sort of false. Miller came in, got a FC with the batter reached on an error then got another FC, this time 5-6, to end the game.)
Question 9: Wasn’t Babe Ruth part of a no-hitter? He’s a Hall of Famer! Why didn’t you mention him?
Answer 9: Well, it was a weird game and Babe Ruth was in the game for zero outs. See, Ruth started the game by walking leadoff hitter Ray Morgan on four pitches. Ruth then argued with the umpire (he felt the umpire’s strike zone was incorrect), and was thrown out of the game. Ernie Shore came into the game and Morgan was caught stealing. Shore then retired the next 27 batters en route to a no-hitter. As a side note, Ernie Shore was absolutely huge for his era (and rather large for today). Don’t believe me? Check out this picture with the 6’2″ (listed) Ruth:
Question 10: So only the Padres who have not had a pitcher (or pitchers) throw a no-hitter?
Answer 10: That is correct; 6,896 games and counting – they’re in their 44th season.
Random things I noticed: Teams used to change names a lot, often going back and forth between names and using multiple team names at the same time.
- The Boston Red Sox were known as the Boston Pilgrims and the Boston Americans at the same time.
- The Los Angeles Dodgers were known as the Brooklyn Atlantics (1884), Brooklyn Grays (1885-1887), Brooklyn Bridegrooms (1888-1890), Brooklyn Grooms (1891-1895), Brooklyn Bridegrooms (again, 1896-1898), Brooklyn Superbas (1899-1910), Brooklyn Dodgers (1911 – 1912), Brooklyn Superbas (again, 1913), Brooklyn Robins (1914-1931), and Brooklyn Dodgers (again, from 1932 to 1957), and Los Angeles Dodgers (1958 to present).
- The Chicago White Sox have been known as the White Sox since 1901. The Detroit Tigers have been known as the Detroit Tigers since 1901. These appear to be the longest any team has been named the same thing and played in the same city.
- There were no teams added to the Major Leagues between 1901 and 1961.
Until next time, follow me @HypeProspect.
Sources:
http://www.baseball-reference.com
http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Major_League_Baseball_Sanctioned_No-Hitters
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1073981/index.htm
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/history/rare_feats/index.jsp?feature=rookie_no_hitter
Favorite Prospect Struggling? Might Be No Big Deal!
One of the most frustrating things is when a top prospect comes up and does not just fail, but falls flat on his face. One of the most recent, and frustrating, examples is San Francisco Giants first baseman Brandon Belt. After being drafted in the fifth round in the 2009 draft out of the University of Texas at Austin, Belt was assigned to High A and absolutely destroyed the ball, putting up a 383/492/628 line in 333 plate appearances before being promoted to AA, where Belt kept on hitting to the tune of a 337/413/623 line across 201 plate appearances. Belt was promoted to AAA for a brief 61 plate appearances, putting up a respectable 229/393/563 line to end the season. In 2011, Belt spent time in the major leagues, being played inconsistently by Manager Bruce Bochy while failing to produce with a 225/306/412 line and destroying AAA pitching to the tune of a 309/448/527 line. In 2012, Belt has had similar issues in the major league, putting up a much-improved 230/347/340 line while making an adjustment to stand more upright during his at bats.
But take heart Giants fans (or Royals fans for Eric Hosmer, or Rays fans for Matt Moore), there is a long, long list of great baseball players who were top prospects and struggled early on, eventually becoming great baseball players.
1. Michael Jack Schmidt. Chances are if you know more than three males born from 1975 through 1985, one of them will be named Michael or Jack (or Michael Jack) and there is a really good reason for this: Mike Schmidt was an amazing baseball player. Before he began putting up Hall of Fame numbers, Schmidt put up a putrid 196/324/373 line in 1973. Schmidt’s learning curve was steep, as he put up a 282/395/546 line, leading the National League with 36 home runs, 138 strikeouts (the following year he would strike out 180 times), and a .546 slugging percentage.
2. Matt Wieters. Matt Wieters was supposed to be the next big thing after he was drafted #5 overall by the Baltimore Orioles out of Georgia Tech in 2007. After being ranked the #12 prospect by Baseball America before playing a single professional game and #1 after putting up a 345/448/576 line in High A and a 365/460/625 line in AA in 2008. In 2009, Wieters put up a 305/387/504 line in AAA before being promoted to the major leagues. Wieters struggled his first few seasons in the major leagues, but has since turned into a consistent All-Star and Gold Glove winner who is consistently in the discussion for the best catcher in the league.
3. Edgardo Alfonzo. Before becoming one of the best second baseman in the league from 1999-2002, Alfonzo was a top prospect in the Mets organization, being ranked as the #74 prospect by Baseball America after the 1992 season and #31 prospect by Baseball America after the 1993 season. Alfonzo put up a 278/301/382 line in 1995 and a 261/304/345 line in 1996 before figuring it out in 1997 to the tune of a 315/391/432 line. Alfonzo’s peak was short due to back problems, but he was one of the most underrated baseball players, and a key cog for the Mets, in the late 90s and early 2000s.
4. Adrian Beltre. Beltre is one of the more fascinating career paths, from a top prospect (Baseball America ranked him the #30 prospect after a 1996 season where he hit a combined 284/366/519 at full season A and High A age 17 and then the #3 prospect after he hit 317/407/561 in High A in 1997). After putting up a 321/411/581 line in 64 games in AA as a 19 year old in 1998, Beltre hit 215/278/369 in 77 games for the Dodgers. Beltre played with varying levels of success for the next five years, putting up a combined 265/323/432 line before breaking out with an amazing 334/388/629 line in 2004, his contract year. After signing a five-year, $63 million contract with the Seattle Mariners, Beltre seemingly returned to his previous level, putting up a combined 266/317/442 line over five years. In 2010, Beltre finally put it all together for the Boston Red Sox, playing Gold Glove-caliber defense while putting up a 321/365/553 line, a level he has generally maintained during his season and two months with the Texas Rangers.
5. Jayson Werth. After being the #22 pick of the 1997 draft by the Baltimore Orioles, Werth hit in every stop in the minor leagues and was consistently a highly-regarded prospect. Baseball America ranked him #52 after 1998 and #48 after 1999. After an off season in 2000, Werth bounced back after being dealt to the Blue Jays for Jason Bale and Baseball America ranked him #70 and then #94 after 2002. Werth then spent the next few years raking in the minors and struggling in the majors (albeit often with injuries), including being dealt to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Jason Frasor. After having the Dodgers not offer him a contract, Werth signed with the Phillies as a free agent and finally broke out.
6. Ryne Sandberg. Sandberg was a 20th round pick by the Phillies in 1978, so he was not exactly the most highly regarded prospect until he hit 310/403/469 as a 20-year old in AA and 293/352/397 as a 21 year old in AAA, while stealing 32 bases both years, primarily as a shortstop. After being traded by the Phillies with Larry Bowa for Ivan de Jesus, Sandberg won the National League Rookie of the Year with a 271/312/372 line followed by a 261/316/351 line in his second year. Sandberg broke out in 1984, winning the MVP with a 314/367/520 line, cementing himself as the Cubs second baseman of the future.
Of course, this isn’t to say that Belt, Hosmer, and Moore will all bounce back and become great players (or even good ones, history is littered with top prospects who never panned out), but it should be noted that prospects often struggle early on and have very productive careers – not everyone can start a career like Ralph Kiner.
Of course, Giants fans can just keep checking for Brandon Belt trade rumors at MLBTradeRumors.
Until next time, follow me @HypeProspect.
Sources:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltbr01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=belt–001bra
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hosmeer01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/moorema02.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/schmimi01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wietema01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=wieter001mat
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/alfoned01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=alfonz003edg
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltrad01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=beltre001adr
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/werthja01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=werth-001jay
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sandbry01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=sandbe001ryn
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/all-time.html
Post Hype Prospect – Michael Pineda
This afternoon, news came out that Michael Pineda was diagnosed with an anterior labral tear and will miss the entire season surgery on Tuesday, May 1 at the Hospital for Special Surgery in New York. Pineda, who turned 23 in January, has come a long way since signing with the Seattle Mariners out of the Dominican Republic back in 2005.
Signed on December 12, 2005 for a paltry $35,000, Pineda made his professional debut in 2006 in the Dominican Summer League with the DSL Mariners, putting up a 0.44 ERA over eight games (three starts), striking out 14 batters in 20.1 innings. In 2007, Pineda was still unable to get a visa, and again pitched for the DSL Mariners, putting up a 2.29 ERA across 59 inings with 48 strike outs. Finally able to pitch in the U.S. in 2008, Pineda dominated in for the A level Wisconsin Timber Rattlers of the Midwest Leaue, putting up a 1.95 ERA across 138.1 innings with 128 strike outs. Pineda started 21 games and relieved in five games in an attempt to decrease his workload, finishing the season with a dominating performance against the Quad Cities River Bandits, the St. Louis Cardinals Midwest League affiliate, with 14 strike outs, no walks, and only one hit in a complete game shutout.
Moved up to the High A California League High Desert Mavericks to start 2009, Pineda pitched well to start the season, but quickly encountered arm trouble. After going 5, 6.1, 7, and 7.1 innings to start the season, Pineda was placed on the Minor League Disabled List for 15 days due to elbow soreness. Activated on May 12, Pineda’s innings were limited, going 2 and 3 innings in his next two appearances before re-aggravating the injury and going on the Minor League Disabled List for approximately three months, only returning to the Rookie Level AZL Mariners for a 1 and 2 inning appearance in early August. After being cleared, Pineda was returned to High Desert, where he pitched 13.2 innings over four starts, allowing four runs (three earned), while striking out 22.
In 2010, Pineda was assigned to the AA West Tenn Diamond Jaxx of the Southern League, where he absolutely dominated opponents. Across 77 innings over 13 starts, Pineda struck out 78 and allowed only 67 hits. The Mariners took notice and promoted him to the AAA Tacoma Rainiers of the Pacific Coast Leauge, where Pineda kept doing well. Pineda struck out 76 in 62.1 innings with a 4.76 ERA. Pineda, pitching a career high 139.1 innings, clearly tired. In his last two starts, Pineda went 4.1 and 3.2 innings, allowing four and six runs (all earned), with eight hits in both. Pineda’s numbers should also be adjusted to consider that he was in the hitter-friendly environment of the PCL.
After 2010, prospect prognosticators took notice and rated Pineda accordingly. Baseball America ranked Pineda #16 overall (between Matt Moore and Freddie Freeman), Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein ranked Pineda #24 (between Jacob Turner and Dustin Ackley), and MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo ranked Pineda #13 (between Kyle Drabek and Mike Montgomery).
Pineda opened the 2011 season as the #5 starter for the Seattle Mariners, immediately showing why he was considered a top prospect. After a six-inning effort on July 4, Pineda had a 2.58 ERA over 108 innings across 1 starts with 106 strike outs and a sparkling .564 OPS-against. Pineda struggled in his next six starts, putting up a 7.64 ERA over 33 innings until mid-August. From August 21 through the rest of the season, Pineda seemed to pitch well, with a 3.60 ERA over five starts across 30 innings. Overall, Pineda pitched very well, putting up a 3.74 ERA (103 ERA+) across 171 innings in his age-22 season, coming in fifth in the Rookie of the Year vote in a very stacked year.
The big trade of the 2012 off season occurred on January 23 when the Mariners dealt Pineda with prospect Jose Campos to the Yankees for ultra-prospect Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi.
In spring training, the big story was Pineda’s decreased velocity. From ESPN New York’s Andrew Marchand:
But there was also this: scouts behind home plate had Pineda’s velocity at mostly 90-92.
When Pineda dominated in the first half of last year, he threw his fastball in the mid-90s. Last spring, at this time, Pineda was throwing 95-98 and his changeup was at 88.
In his next start, Pineda silenced critics and hit 94 on the radar gun, as the Yankees’ General Manager, Brian Cashman, said that Pineda is 20 pounds overweight. After the game, Pineda told Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News: “I know I can throw harder, but it’s getting better. My arm feels good.” On the eve of the season, Pineda is put on the 15-day Disabled List with shoulder inflammation and tendinitis, which is never a good omen. Then, just today, the bombshell hit: Pineda will undergo surgery next Tuesday to repair an anterior labral tear, which will keep him out for the entire 2012 season, and possibly part of 2013.
What will happen to Pineda from here? Surgery then rehabilitation is for sure, how well his “stuff” comes back is another story altogether. While many pitchers have come back from elbow surgery (such as ulnar collateral ligament surgery, more commonly known as Tommy John surgery) with flying colors, such as Stephen Strasburg and, well, Tommy John, shoulder surgeries, especially ones on the labrum, have a less successful track record. As State’s Will Carroll wrote:
Leading baseball surgeon Dr. James Andrews estimates that 85 percent of pitchers make a full recovery after an ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction, aka the once risky Tommy John surgery. (USA Today has even called the surgery the “pitcher’s best friend.”) But if pitchers with torn labrums were horses, they’d be destroyed. Of the 36 major-league hurlers diagnosed with labrum tears in the last five years, only midlevel reliever Rocky Biddle has returned to his previous level. Think about that when your favorite pitcher comes down with labrum trouble: He has a 3 percent chance of becoming Rocky Biddle. More likely, he’ll turn into Mike Harkey, Robert Person, or Jim Parque, pitchers who lost stamina and velocity—and a major-league career—when their labrums began to fray.
So what can we expect? It’s entirely possible that this may be the end of the career of Michael Pineda, which would be unfortunate for every baseball fan, as Pineda’s talent is worth the price of admission. But Pineda may return, and he may return to form, but only time will tell.
So does this mean that the Mariners won the trade? It probably does. While the Yankees may end up striking gold with Jose Campos, Jesus Montero was a lot to give up for a 19-year old pitcher in A-ball. In the end, we will need five years to evaluate the trade, but early returns give the Mariners a big advantage. And remember, TNSTAAPP.
Update: Curt Schilling has said that he thinks Pineda “can be back better than he has ever been in 10 months. Maybe less, because he is younger. It is going to be 100 percent on him.” Mark Mulder, who had a labral tear and a rotator cuff injury never felt the same after coming back from surgery.
Update #2: Baseball Prospectus‘ Jay Jaffe has written a great article discussing the results of pitchers who have had similar surgeries, and I suggest you read it . Jaffe notes that:
On the other hand, five pitchers (Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, Al Leiter, Chris Carpenter, and Gil Meche) threw more than 1,000 innings following the surgery, and another six (Scott Elarton, Jason Isringhausen, Ted Lilly, Jon Rauch, Anibal Sanchez, and Jose Valverde) have topped 400 innings.
So it appears that there is significant precedent for a successful return for Pineda – but not one without risk.
Until next time, follow me @HypeProspect.
Sources:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16634
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pinedmi01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=pineda001mic
http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=5372&position=P&season=2008
http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=5372&position=P&season=2009
http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=5372&position=P&season=2010
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/all-time.html
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13078
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110124&content_id=16493480&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=campos003jos
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/monteje01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/noesihe01.shtml
http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/yankees/post/_/id/29206/pinedas-velo-down-results-ok
http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2004/05/labrum_it_nearly_killed_him.html
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/2003-07-28-cover-tommy-john_x.htm
http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/yankees/post/_/id/31926/buzz-campos
absaq23
Athletics Farm
chuckvanderbilt
cjohns56
PostHypeProspect
mimawhinney
Jonathan Mayo
Moe Koltun
nolimits16423
prospectd2j
scottyallenlaai
uchicagoboy
warehouseworthy
Jayne Hansen
