Results tagged ‘ blue jays ’
Looking at the July 2012 Astros/Blue Jays Trade
Earlier this week, I looked at what the Astros and Blue Jays each netted as a result of the July 2012 10-player trade that sent Astros RHP Brandon Lyon, RHP David Carpenter and LHP J.A. Happ to the Blue Jays in exchange for major-leaguers RHP Francisco Cordero and OF Ben Francisco, and minor-leaguers RHP Asher Wojciechowski, C Carlos Perez, RHP Joe Musgrove, RHP Kevin Comer and LHP David Rollins. From that trade, only Happ remains with the Blue Jays, but not only are the five minor-leaguers still an integral part of the Astros farm system, four of the five appear on Jonathan Mayo’s recently released Astros Top 20 list on MLB.com.
RHP Asher Wojciechowski tops Mayo’s list at #15. He is also the most advanced player on the list, having excelled in his introduction to AA after the trade. In eight starts for AA Corpus Christi, Wojciechowski was 2-2 with a 2.06 ERA and a 1.008 WHIP. According to Mayo, Wojciechowski has a plus fastball and curveball, plus a changeup that is evolving into what may also be an above-average offering. He is projected to be a workhorse and Baseball America puts his ceiling as a #2 starter.
And while Wojciechowski looks to have a promising future, I wondered if he would ultimately prove to be the linchpin of the trade or if one of the other prospects might emerge as a key player in the trade. I discussed this with Mayo last week and got his thoughts on three of the four remaining prospects from the trade.
First we talked about RHP Joe Musgrove and RHP Kevin Comer, two intriguing high school arms drafted by the Blue Jays in the first round in 2011 who are just embarking on their careers. According to Mayo, “They both have tremendous potential and upside. I think that if it comes together for them, they have higher ceilings than Wojciechowski does.”
Comer, who Mayo ranks at #17 in the Astros Top 20 list, signed late in 2011 and did not pitch until 2012. He came to the Astros late in the season as the player to be named later and only pitched six innings for the Appy League Greeneville Astros, but had a respectable first season for Toronto’s rookie league Bluefield team, putting together a 3-3 record with a 3.95 ERA and a 1.177 WHIP. Still very raw, scouts like him for his solid mechanics and repeatable delivery and expect him to, at a minimum, have three average major league pitches.
Musgrove is ranked by Mayo at #19. In 2012, Musgrove was limited to 17 innings pitched due to a muscle strain in his shoulder, but had a solid debut in 2011 with a 4.01 ERA and a 0.987 WHIP in nine games (seven starts). Musgrove at 6’5″ 230# profiles to be a sturdy innings-eater. Add in an above-average fastball, and a curve and splitter that are projected to be at least major league average and you can see why scouts like him.
Mayo went on to talk about the risks and rewards of signing high school pitchers, “Loading up on high ceiling high school arms is the highest risk, but it’s also the highest reward more often than not. Obviously, there are a lot of exceptions, but a lot of the time the guys that end up being the top of the rotation types are those high ceiling high school guys. The nature of development dictates that those kind of young arms are the biggest wild card there is.”
C Carlos Perez is currently ranked by Mayo at #20, “I kept him in the 20 for a reason. There’s enough there to like. Sometimes with catchers, it can take a while. There’s a lot that you’re learning. So I tend to be a little more patient in waiting for catchers to develop. Not everybody’s Buster Posey.”
Mayo continued in his assessment of Perez, “He is at worst a back-up and a good one because not only does he have a good arm, but he also moves well behind the plate. There’s plenty of guys that catch and have strong arms and they can’t do anything else and what good does that do [if] it takes them too long to get rid of the ball and their footwork’s all messed up and things like that. He does all those things well so that will get him to the big leagues. How much he hits will really determine whether or not he’s an everyday guy or a decent back up.” Perez hit .275/.358/.447 in the Low A Midwest League before the trade and .318/.368/.409 in 26 games after the trade with High A Lancaster in the California League.
The final piece of the puzzle is lefty David Rollins. Although Rollins isn’t ranked as a top prospect, he had an impressive season at Low A in his second professional season, putting up a 7-4 record with a 2.98 ERA and a 1.252 WHIP in 24 starts. Since Rollins wasn’t on Mayo’s radar, I contacted Rollins to find out a little more about him and this is what he told me, “My pitch repertoire consists of a fastball (2 and 4 seam), curveball, slider, and my favorite, the circle change. I’d say my changeup is my best pitch. I can command it well and it helps keep hitters off balance. I’ve been working a lot this off season on my curve ball. I stopped throwing it this past season because I lost confidence in it. I’m steadily gaining it back and ready to see it in a game situation. I have been doing a lot of long tossing and band work to get arm strength so I can gain velo. The movement on my fastball and off speed help me get ground outs and pop ups so I just need to learn to command them all to be successful.”
When asked about his strengths as a pitcher as well as what he needs to work on, Rollins stated, “I would have to say I keep the hitters off balance well. I now recognize if the hitter doesn’t hit something well, I’ll go to that pitch. Also I have been working on a pick-off move and it is now in my arsenal of things I have worked the kinks out of. The main thing I need to focus more on and to improve is the command of my pitches and I have been working hard this off season to do that so when I go into spring training I’ll already know the feel for all my pitches.”
It is doubtful that all five of these prospects will end up contributing to the Astros at the major league level some day simply because the odds are against even one prospect making his mark, much less five of them. But I like the talent and potential that GM Jeff Luhnow added to the farm system in this deal – a durable AA righty, two high ceiling high school draftees, a great defensive catcher with a promising bat and an up-and-coming lefty with a plan. Any one of these players could make the Blue Jays rue the day that they agreed to this trade.
Thanks to Jonathan Mayo for taking the time out to talk to me. Mayo’s Prospect Watch for 2013 can be found here. For more on the Astros minor league system, visit What the Heck, Bobby? or follow me on twitter @whattheheck57.
Brett Lawrie – Post Hype Prospect – @blawrie13
Two days ago, Brett Lawrie was facing Fernando Rodney and had worked the count to 3-1. Rodney threw the fifth pitch of the at bat, which was, according to PitchFX data, was slightly more than one foot outside. Lawrie, assuming the pitch would be correctly called, dropped his bat and began trotting to first base. Buck Martinez, the Blue Jays’ play-by-play announcer stated “ball four.” Alas, home plate umpire Bill Miller had other ideas, calling the pitch a strike. Lawrie returned to the batter’s box with an astonished look on his face. Martinez stated “Wow!” in astonishment after the call.
Rodney fired again, throwing a high change-up which, again, Lawrie took and headed to first base. Again, Miller called the pitch a strike, thereby causing Lawrie to strike out. At that point, Lawrie absolutely lost his mind. Lawrie protested, screaming at Miller and threw his helmet against the ground, ricocheting off the dirt and hitting (it did more than graze) Miller in the leg. The video says it all:
Of course, while his reaction was inexcusable, the last two pitches were not strikes, at least according to MLB’s own PitchFX data.
Source: BrooksBaseball.net
Lawrie’s reaction was not particularly surprising, as reports of his attitude have been split, with some praising his intensity and desire to succeed while others have questioned his maturity and desire. Of course, it all goes back to the beginning, when Brett Lawrie was drafted by the Milwaukee Brewers.
Brett R. Lawrie, a catching prospect out of Langley, British Columbia, was viewed as one of the top prospects in the draft. Lawrie’s exploits were legendary: plus hit tool, plus raw power, plus arm, and plus athleticism. Lawrie was drafted with the 16th pick of the 2008 Major League Baseball Rule IV Draft by the Milwaukee Brewers. Prior to the draft, Lawrie was awarded the Top Hitter Award (.469 batting average), Home Runs Award (3), and Most RBI in the Tournament (16), while playing in the 2008 World Junior Baseball Championship in Edmonton, Alberta. Lawrie was named the starting catcher on the tournament All-World team and joined the Canadian National Baseball team to prepare for the Beijing Olympics. Lawrie was not as successful in Beijing, going 0-10 in six games, with two strike outs and two RBI.
Lawrie signed with the Brewers for a $1.6 million signing bonus and the accolades began rolling in. Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein called Lawrie “an excellent natural hitter,” in ranking him the #2 prospect in the Brewers’ system, behind Alcides Escobar, and #57 overall, between Jordan Zimmerman and (fellow Brewer farmhand) Mat Gamel. Baseball America ranked Lawrie The #3 prospect in the Brewers’ system, behind Escobar and Gamel, and the #81 prospect in all of baseball. Baseball America, clearly impressed with his time on the Canadian Junior National team, named Lawrie the “Best Power Hitter” in the Brewers’ system prior to a single professional at bat.
Lawrie was assigned to the Full Season A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers, the Brewers’ affiliate in the Midwest League, where he put up a respectable 274/348/454 line in 105 games before being promoted to the Huntsville Stars, the Brewers’ AA affiliate in the Southern League. Lawrie struggled in his 13-game trial at AA, putting up a 269/283/308 line while getting caught stealing twice and striking out 14 times. Despite being drafted as a catcher and the Brewers publicly stating they wanted to keep him behind the plate, Lawrie exclusively played second base in 2009. Despite the on-field success, there were many small clashes behind the scenes as Lawrie felt that the Brewers were trying to reign in his personality.
After the season, the accolades poured in, with Lawrie being named the #2 prospect by Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus (again behind Escobar) and #99 overall. While Goldstein praised Lawrie’s offensive abilities, there was much consternation over Lawrie’s defense at second base. Baseball America was more optimistic, also ranking Lawrie the #2 prospect in the Brewers’ system, but ranking Lawrie the #59 prospect in all of baseball. Baseball America called Lawrie the “Best Hitter for Average” and “Best Power Hitter” in the Brewers’ organization, along with the #4 prospect in the Midwest League for 2009.
In 2010, Lawrie returned to the Hunsville Stars, putting up a 285/346/451 line as the 10th youngest player in the Southern League. After the season, Lawrie felt that he deserved a cup of coffee in the Major Leagues when rosters were expanded in September, but the Brewers asked Lawrie to go to the Arizona Fall League for additional playing time. Lawrie declined. The Brewers tried to encourage Lawrie to go to Arizona, dangling the carrot of an invitation to Spring Training, but Lawrie again demurred.
In December 2010, the Brewers, in full “win now” mode and looking to bolster their starting pitching depth, dealt Lawrie to the Toronto Blue Jays for Shaun Marcum. SBNation’s Brew Crew Ball viewed the trade positively, calling Marcum “easily #2 caliber, if not a borderline #1″, stating that the trade is one that’s “going to work out well for the Crew.” While the writer at Brew Crew Ball, Jordan M, was clearly a fan of Marcum, he underestimated how good Lawrie would become and severly overstating the value of Mat Gamel.
Blue Jays fans were excited at the prospect of rooting for their native-born son as he played in Toronto. About the prospect of being dealt to Toronto (which is actually farther from his B.C. home), Lawrie said:
It was very exciting for me being a Canadian kid. It’s a great feeling to come back to Canada and have the Canadian flag on my chest again. It’s the first time I’ve felt welcome in a long time.
Lawrie also indicated that the Blue Jays did not view him as a second baseman, saying that he’s been working out at third base at the direction of the Blue Jays, with the idea being a move to third base permanently. As occurred twice before, the accolades rolled in with Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus saying Lawrie “has the tools to be a star,” who is “an excellent pure hitter with plenty of strength,” while highlighting Lawrie’s 60 extra base hits, but dinging Lawrie for his defensive woes and refusal to go to the Arizona Fall League while ranking Lawrie the #3 prospect in the Blue Jays’ system (behind Kyle Drabek and J.P. Arencibia) and the #57 prospect in all of baseball (between Braves flamethrowers Craig Kimbrel and Randall Delgado). Baseball America ranked Lawrie the #2 prospect in the Blue Jays organization (behind Drabek) and the #40 prospect in all of baseball.
Lawrie spent spring training with the Blue Jays, putting up a 293/326/488 line and fueling speculation that he would open the season in the Majors. Instead, Lawrie was sent to the Las Vegas 51s, the Blue Jays’ AAA affiliate in the Pacific Coast League. Lawrie opened the season by absolutely smoking the ball, putting up a 361/371/588 line in April and sitting with a 354/388/677 line at the end of the day on May 30. The buzz was building, with Blue Jays’ GM Alex Andropoulos hinting that Lawrie’s call up would be imminent, stating “Yeah, he’s close,” when asked if Lawrie would be up soon. Then, on May 31, Lawrie was hit on the back of his hand with a pitch, causing swelling. X-rays, taken at a local hospital only revealed a bruise, but Lawrie had difficulty gripping a bat and further tests indicated a broken bone in his left hand. Lawrie missed the next six weeks, making his return during a rehabilitation stint with the Dunedin Blue Jays in the High A Florida State League. Lawrie then returned to Las Vegas, where he put up a 348/410/609 line in 17 games before being called up to the Blue Jays.
Upon his call up, Lawrie became the starting third baseman for the Blue Jays, mashing to a 293/373/953 line with an impressive 151 OPS+ in 43 games, hitting eight doubles, four triples, and nine home runs. Lawrie also showcased his speed and talent on the base paths, stealing seven bases and only getting caught once. Lawrie hit an 11th inning walk-off home run on September 5 against the Red Sox, becoming the first player born in the 1990s to hit a walk off home run. Lawrie’s season was cut short when he broke his finger while taking infield practice prior to a game against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (which is in California) on September 21.
Lawrie began the 2012 season as the starting third baseman for the Blue Jays and was having a slow start, putting up a 281/325/384 line (92 OPS+) when the incident with Bill Miller occurred. The following day, it was announced that Lawrie would be suspended for four games for his actions.
But what will happen with Lawrie? Outside of the fine and suspension, nothing will happen to Lawrie. There are ample examples of players losingtheir minds while playing baseball, from George Brett
to the oddly-similar Jermaine Dye to the absolutely insane Izzy Alcantara video (I’m calling the video insane, though it appears the same could be said for Alcantara):
The only player who got anything worse than a few days off and it appears that George Brett was not even suspended for his attempt to kill Tim McClelland.
Will this impact Lawrie in the future? I doubt it will have any impact. Lawrie has always been viewed as an intense competitor with an unyielding desire to win at everything and beat everyone who gets in his way. Lawrie is, in short, the type of player who has an unyielding desire to be the best and has the #want to do everything he can do in order to succeed (legally, of course – I wouldn’t go all Pedro Gomez and suggest that he does anything illicit).
Was Lawrie’s reaction reprehensible? Yes; he acted like a petulant child. Does every fan want a player who wants to win that badly – and show that desire? Yes. Does this incident hurt Lawrie’s long term value? Not in the least bit.
Frankly, I think writers should stop being so hard on Lawrie; imagine if your boss made you do something and then told you it was terrible and that you’re being demoted even though you did a great job.
Also, in case you’re wondering, I think the Blue Jays absolutely fleeced the Brewers in the trade, as, while Marcum is a nice #3 pitcher, Lawrie has the talent and desire to become a superstar.
Until next time, follow me @HypeProspect.
Sources:
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2008/reports.jsp?content=lawrie
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=lawrie001bre
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lawribr01.shtml
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=Brett-Lawrie
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8347
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8506
http://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/35058
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10142
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10035
http://www.brewcrewball.com/2010/12/6/1859068/the-brett-lawrie-for-shaun-marcum-trade
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/marcush01.shtml
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12746
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13078
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5247&position=3B
http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=5247&position=3B&type=-1&gds=2011-04-07&gde=2011-08-03
http://blogs.thescore.com/mlb/2011/05/31/friday-with-lawrie/
http://sports.nationalpost.com/2011/05/31/super-prospect-lawrie-close-to-callup-jays-gm-says/
http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Brett_Lawrie
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TOR/TOR201109050.shtml
Post Hype Prospect – Colby Rasmus
Colby Rasmus has been as controversial player as there is in the major leagues over the past few years (without committing a crime). An ultra-talented center fielder with plus power, great range, and a canon throwing arm, Rasmus has the potential to be the next great player. After a great 2010, Rasmus seemingly took a few steps back in his development, followed by a trade from St. Louis to Toronto.
Born in Columbus, Georgia, Rasmus moved to Phenix City, Alabama when he was young. In Phenix City, Rasmus was a star pitcher and first baseman in Little League, leading his Phenix City Little League team to the finals of the 1999 Little League World Series, losing to Hirakata (Japan) Little League in the finals.
After a great career at Russell County High School in Seale, Alabama, Rasmus was selected by the St. Louis Cardinals in the first round of the 2005 MLB draft, #28 overall. A number of very good players were selected prior to Rasmus, including Justin Upton (Arizona, 1st round/1st pick), Ryan Zimmerman (Washington, 1/4), Ryan Braun (Milwaukee, 1/5), Ricky Romero (Toronto, 1/6), Troy Tulowitzki (Colorado, 1/7), Andrew McCutchen (Pittsburgh, 1/11), Jacoby Ellsbury (1/23), and Matt Garza (Minnesota, 1/25). Rasmus signed for $1 million and was assigned to the Johnson City Cardinals, the Cardinals Rookie Level affiliate in the Appalachian League. Rasmus put up an impressive 296/362/514 line in 62 games in Johnson City.
In 2006, Rasmus who not ranked in Baseball America’s Top 100, was assigned to the Swing of the Quad Cities, the Cardinals’ A-level Midwest League affiliate, where he excelled. Rasmus was putting up a 310/373/512 line across 78 games for Quad Cities, when he was promoted to the Palm Beach Cardinals, the Cardinals’ High A affiliate in the Florida State League. In the notoriously pitcher-friendly Florida State League, Rasmus displayed power with a mature approach, putting up a 254/351/404 line as second youngest player in the Florida State League.
As a result of his excellent 2006 season, Rasmus’ stock skyrocketed, as Baseball America ranked him the #29 prospect, but Rasmus’ talent had only started to shine through. In 2007, Rasmus spent the year playing for the Springfield Cardinals of the AA Texas League, putting up a 275/381/551 line, showing significant development of his power with 37 doubles, 3 triples, and 29 home runs. Tulsa Drillers’ Manager, Stu Cole waxed poetic in discussing Rasmus’ ability:
“If there was a five-tool player in the league last year, Rasmus was the one. He brought everything to the table. If the ball was in the air, there was a chance you were going to see something exciting.”
In December 2007, the Cardinals dealt incumbent center fielder Jim Edmonds to the San Diego Padres for David Freese, clearing the way for Rasmus. Rasmus was ranked the #5 prospect by Baseball America (behind Jay Bruce, Evan Longoria, Joba Chamberlain, and Clay Buchholz), and prospect prognosticators praised his power, plate discipline, range in centerfield, and cannon throwing arm. Rasmus was invited to spring training and played reasonably well, but was sent to the Pacific Coast League’s Memphis Redbirds, where he immediately went into a deep offensive funk, hitting .186 through his first 172 at bats. Rasmus ended up with a respectable 251/346/396 line in 90 games for the Redbirds, missing time with a knee injury. Presciently, comments attached to his father, Tony, a former minor leaguer in the then-California Angels system, emerged, showing Tony’s disagreement with the actions of the Cardinals. Tony stated that the Cardinals were trying to alter Rasmus’ swing, publicly displaying a rift between the Rasmus family and the Cardinals.
Despite the lackluster season and the injury, Rasmus’ solid showing after the slow start and potential convinced Baseball America to rank him the #3 prospect, behind Matt Wieters and David Price. The Cardinals requested that Rasmus play winter ball to get additional at bats to get ready for the season, but Rasmus declined. Rasmus, apparently having never seen Crash Davis’ conversations with Nuke LaLoosh, reported to spring training asserting that he would go north with the Cardinals and could be the teams center fielder, irking a number of veterans including Rick Ankiel and Chris Duncan.
On Opening Day, Rasmus batted second and played right field (Ankiel was in center) and made a great debut – going 2/4 with a walk in his major league debut in the Cardinals’ 9-3 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Rasmus put up a solid 251/307/407 line in 2009, starting 104 games in centerfield while only starting 10 in left field and right field. Rasmus placed eighth in the Rookie of the Year Award vote (Chris Coghlan won) and was the inspiration for one of the greatest YouTube videos of all time:
Rasmus came into 2010 hoping to build on 2009 and exceeded expectations, putting up a 276/361/498 (132 OPS+) line. Rasmus began 2011 crushing the ball. After a 3/5 day against the Cubs on May 12, Rasmus goes into a tailspin, putting up a 194/282/377 line across 57 games until his late July trade to the Toronto Blue Jays. In early July, Cardinals’ Manager Tony La Russa said that “[w]hat [Rasmus is] working on is something that he thinks will help him and it comes from someplace else.” That “someplace else” was Rasmus’ father, Tony. While La Russa said that “it’s not unusual” for a player to seek familiar coaching, it was unusual to totally exclude the hitting instruction provided by the team, in this case Hitting Coach Mark McGwire.
The war of word continued between La Russa and Rasmus, culminating in a trade on July 27 with Trevor Miller, Brian Tallet, and P.J. Walters for Octavio Dotel, Edwin Jackson, Corey Patterson, and Marc Rzepczynski. Both sides seemed pleased with the deal, the Blue Jays picked up the ultra-talented Rasmus and the Cardinals picked up two solid bullpen arms, a starter, and a backup outfielder. It was the ultimate “change of scenery” trade.
While there is still a lot of time before we can fully judge the trade, it appears that St. Louis did much better than initially perceived. Rasmus put up a terrible 173/201/316 (37 OPS+) line over the final 35 games in the season, and has a 200/256/343 line (small sample size alert!) through 10 games in 2012. The Cardinals, however, caught fire after the trade, winning the Wild Card on the last day of the season and winning one of the most exciting World Series in recent memory.
How do we evaluate Rasmus? He’s still (somehow) only 25 and loaded with talent. Though reports have indicated decreased range, he still has the tools to be a middle-of-the-order hitter and center fielder. But how did Rasmus get here? Has he failed to actualize his talents? Are his father’s attempts to help hurting him? Is there another factor that is causing problems? No one seems to be quite sure – if anyone knew the problem they would be able to solve the problem. In the end Rasmus may figure it out and reach his potential or he make it onto the long list of ultra-talented players who had initial success in the Major Leagues but were unable to make the necessary adjustments.
Until next time, follow me @HypeProspect.
Sources:
http://www.baseball-reference.com
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=rasmus001col
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rasmuco01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=rasmuco01&t=b&year=2009
http://www.littleleague.org/series/history/year/1999.htm
http://www.nytimes.com/1999/08/29/sports/baseball-osaka-wins-little-league-title-game.html
http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/awards_2009.shtml#NLroy
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