Results tagged ‘ Baseball Prospectus ’

Post Hype Prospect – @RedSox Jarrod Saltalamacchia

When people look back at the trade that brought Mark Teixeira to the Atlanta Braves, people talk about Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, and Matt Harrison; but at the time of the trade the main prospect was Jarrod Saltalamacchia, or as he is often known (probably due to his impressively long and difficult to spell last name), Salty.

Ever since he was drafted out of Royal Palm Beach High School by the Atlanta Braves in 2003, Saltalamacchia has been viewed as a potential middle of the order slugger who may be able to remain a catcher.  Saltalamacchia signed quickly for $950,000 and appeared in 46 games for the Rookie League GCL Braves, putting up a 239/382/396, showcasing a willingness to walk and some decent power with 11 doubles.  After the season, Baseball America ranked Saltalamacchia the #3 prospect in the GCL and the #19 prospect in the Braves’ system.

For 2004, the Braves assigned Saltalamacchia to the Rome Braves of the Sally League, where he shows a little power (19 doubles and 10 homers over 366 PA), some patience (34 walks), and enough defensive chops to keep him firmly entrenched as the Braves catcher of the future.  After the season, Baseball America ranked Saltalamacchia the #9 prospect in the Braves system and the #7 prospect in the Sally League.

For 2005, the Braves assigned Saltalamacchia to the high A Myrtle Beach Pelicans of the Carolina League, where he exploded, putting up a 314/394/519 line across 529 plate appearances while hitting 35 doubles and 19 home runs.  Baseball America took notice, ranking Saltalamacchia the #1 Braves prospect, the #1 prospect in the Carolina League, and giving Saltalamacchia the “Best Hitter for Average” superlative after the season.  Baseball America also ranked Saltalamacchia the #18 prospect in all of baseball (between Conor Jackson and Andy LaRoche), firmly establishing his prospect status.

In 2006, Saltalamacchia was promoted to the AA Mississippi Braves of the Southern League, where he struggled, putting up a 230/353/380 line while he struggled with injuries.  Though none of them were considered career threatening, Saltalamacchia had a down season.  After the season, Saltalamacchia was again ranked the Braves #1 prospect and the “Best Hitter for Average” in the Braves system by Baseball America, which also ranked him the #10 prospect in the Southern League and the #36 prospect in all of baseball (between Jeff Niemann and Jacob McGee).

In 2007, Saltalamacchia returned to the AA Mississippi Braves and returned to form, putting up an amazing 309/404/617 line before being called up by the Atlanta Braves, where he put up a 284/333/411 line while splitting time between catcher and first base.  On July 31, 2007, Saltalamacchia was dealt along with Beau Jones, Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz and Matt Harrison to the Texas Rangers for Ron Mahay and Mark Teixeira.  Saltalamacchia spent the rest of the season with the Rangers, putting up a respectable if unimpressive 251/290/431 line for the rest of the season, splitting his time nearly evenly between first base and catcher.

In 2008, Saltalamacchia opened the season with the Oklahoma RedHawks (yes, apparently it is one word), putting up a 291/391/491 line across 15 games before being brought back up to Texas.  Saltalamacchia served as the Rangers starter when healthy, putting up a 253/352/364 line.  Saltalamacchia was injured much of the season, with a bruised hand, a groin strain, a broken bone in his foot, and an elbow issue.

In 2009, Saltalamacchia was the Rangers’ primary catcher, putting up a 233/290/371 line.  At the end of the 2009 season, Saltalamacchia was a 24 year old catcher with a career 251/314/389 line, good for an OPS+ of 83.  Furthermore, Saltalamacchia’s skills behind the plate were not improving as the Rangers had hoped; making many wonder if he would ever develop into anything resembling what he displayed in 2005.

After the second game of the season, Saltalamacchia was placed on the DL with upper back stiffness.  After being activated, Saltalamacchia was sent to the Rangers AAA affiliate, the Oklahoma City RedHawks, where he put up an unimpressive 248/319/453 line, displaying good power, some patience, and too much swing-and-miss.  On July 31, the Rangers dealt Saltalamacchia to the Boston Red Sox for Chris McGuiness, Roman Mendez, Michael Thomas, and cash.  Saltalamacchia spent the next month playing sparingly for the Pawtucket Red Sox (or, as they’re more commonly known, the PawSox) of the AAA International League, putting up a 278/350/500 line before being called up to Boston, where he put up a 158/360/316 line across 10 games.

In 2011, Saltalamacchia experienced a rebirth of sorts, putting up a 235/288/450 line as the Red Sox’s primary catcher, showing good power with 23 doubles and 16 home runs, but little patience (24 walks in 358 PA) and a lot of swing-and-miss (119 strikeouts, or more than 33% of his at bats).

The Red Sox were sufficiently pleased with his play that they signed him to a $2.5 million contract in the off season, thereby avoiding arbitration.  Through September 13, Saltalamacchia has a 229/290/475 line with 15 doubles and 24 home runs for the Red Sox for 2012.

But what do we make of Jarrod Saltalamacchia?  While he was once compared to Joe Mauer and Jason Varitek due to his sweet swing, good plate discipline, and power, Saltalamacchia’s ceiling may be more similar to a lower batting average version of Jorge Posada.  Of course, any time a catcher can play good defense and put up near-league-average offensive numbers, that player can expect a long, prosperous career.

As for now, all we can do is say that Jarrod Saltalamacchia appears to be the perfect example of the “Post Hype Prospect,” a player who once showed the upside of a perennial All-Star, struggled, and has become at least a solid major league regular.

Until next time, follow me @HypeProspect.

References:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/saltaja01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=year_round&year_ID=2003&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg

http://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/75096

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/all-time.html

Prospect Hype – Tyler Skaggs – @TylerSkaggs23 @Dbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks lefthander Tyler Skaggs began his Major League career about as well as he could have hoped  – 6.2 innings, two runs, three hits, five walks, and four strikeouts – and a win for his team.  Despite having his Major League debut shortly after his 21st birthday, Skaggs was not always looked upon as a top prospect – more of a good prospect with a lot of upside.  The amazing thing about Skaggs is that he is the rare projectable prospect who experiences the uptick in velocity, improved command and control, and pitch quality that allows him to jump up the prospect rankings.

Just before his 18th birthday, Skaggs was drafted out of Santa Monica, California by the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim with the 40th pick of the 2009 draft, the Angels’ third pick in the first round.  The first pick was Randal Grichuk (#24), followed by Mike Trout (#25).  After Skaggs, the Angels picked Garrett Richards (#42) and Tyler Kehrer (#48) in the supplemental first round.  Skaggs signed for $1 million and was assigned to the Orem Owlz (yes, Owlz) of the Rookie-level Pioneer League, where Skaggs appeared in two games allowing four runs (two earned) across four innings, striking out six.  Skaggs was then assigned to the AZL Angels (not Angelz), where he appeared in three more games, starting two, allowing no runs across six innings and striking out seven.

Viewed as a lefty with a low-90s fastball with a projectable frame, prospect prognosticators were cautiously optimistic about Skaggs’ future.  Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein ranked Skaggs the #9 prospect in the Angels’ system, stating that “Skaggs oozes projection,” noting his fastball “should gain a few ticks” and that Skaggs’ “command and control” were above average for a teenager.  Baseball America ranked Skaggs the #8 prospect in the Angels’ organization, noting his potential to move up significantly.

In 2010, the Angels assigned the 18-year old Skaggs to the Cedar Rapids Kernals of the full-season A Midwest League, where Skaggs began showing his potential.  Skaggs began the season pitching very well, and his prospect status began to climb.  After his start on May 24, Skaggs’ season line sat at a 2.37 ERA with 41 strikeouts and nine walks across 38 innings.  Skaggs had a respectable 3.61 ERA across 82.1 innings with 82 innings when it was announced he had been traded.  Skaggs was the Player to be Named Later in the August 10 trade between the Angels and Diamondbacks, where the Angels acquired Dan Haren for Patrick Corbin, Rafael Rodriguez, Joe Saunders, and a PTBNL (Skaggs).

Skaggs was assigned to the South Bend Silver Hawks of the Midwest league and dominated for the rest of the season, allowing only three runs in his final 16 innings, striking out 20.  Skaggs cumulative line and great outings at the end of the season bumped up his prospect status.  Baseball America ranked Skaggs the #82 prospect (between Matt Dominguez and Chris Dwyer) in baseball, along with the #10 prospect in the Midwest League, the #2 prospect in the Diamondbacks’ system, and as having the Best Curveball in the Diamondbacks’ system.  BP’s Kevin Goldstein ranked Skaggs the #83 prospect in baseball, between Delino DeShields and Dee GordonGoldstein lauded Skaggs’ “slow, classic 12-6 [curveball] with heavy drop that generates plenty of bad swings,” and ability to throw both his fastball and curveball for strikes.

For 2011, Skaggs was assigned to the high-A Visalia Rawhide of the hitter-friendly California League, where he continued his quality pitching, putting up a 3.22 ERA and striking out 125 (11.2k/9) in 100.2 innings before being promoted to the AA Mobile Bay Bears of the AA Southern League.  In AA, Skaggs pitched even better, putting up a 2.50 ERA across 57.2 innings, striking out 73 (11.4k/9).  After the season, the accolades came in, as Baseball America ranked Skaggs the #13 prospect in baseball, the #1 prospect in the California League, and the #2 prospect in the Southern League, while noting that Skaggs had the “Best Breaking Pitch” and was the “Best Pitching Prospect” in the California League.  BP was just as complimentary, ranking Skaggs #21 overall, between Nolan Arenado and Billy Hamilton, noting that while his fastball used to sit in the average range (89-91), it now “sits in the 91-94mph range with a bit of natural sinking action.”  Kevin Goldstein continued, stating that Skaggs can drop his “plus-plus overhand curveball … into the zone for strikes or bury it as a chase pitch.”  In ranking Goldstein called Skaggs a potential “star-level starting pitcher.”

For 2012, Skaggs was sent back to the AA Mobile Bay Bears, where he dominated, putting up a 2.84 ERA across 69 innings, striking out 71 (9.2k/9) before being promoted to the AAA Reno Aces of the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.  In Reno, Skaggs continued to pitch well, putting up a 2.91 ERA across 52.2 innings while striking out 45 before being promoted to Arizona.

In Skaggs’ first start, ESPN’s Keith Law noted Skaggs’ success:

Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein noted how much he liked Skaggs’ curveball, stating:

Baseball America’s Jim Callis lauded Skaggs’ command and control, stating that Skaggs “has better control and command than Bauer, so Skaggs might be better equipped to make a smoother transition to the big leagues” than Bauer.

So what should we expect from Skaggs for the future?  Skaggs should fit in nicely in the Diamondbacks top-flight rotation of the future with Trevor Bauer, Archie Bradley, Ian Kennedy, and Trevor Cahill.  Will he become a #1 pitcher?  Probably not, but early returns and projections suggest he could become a solid #2, the guy you would love to give the ball to for Game 2 of a postseason series.

Until next time, follow me @HypeProspect.

References:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=skaggs001tyl

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/skaggty01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?team_ID=ANA&year_ID=2009&draft_type=junreg&query_type=franch_year

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9820

http://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/39187

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/all-time.html

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12441

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13078

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12441

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/chat/2012/2613947.html

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16090

Fantasy Keeper Leagues – The Sell Off and the Reload

The moment it happens, you realize your team isn’t going to make that final push to the playoffs and it’s time to look forward to 2013 (and beyond) in an attempt to keep your team competitive for years to come.  It happened to me in the winter between the 2010 and 2011 seasons, and since then I have dealt Yovani Gallardo, Joey Votto, David Wright, Carlos Beltran (acquired in the Gallardo deal), and Matt Cain to acquire Brett Lawrie, Matt Moore, Manny Banuelos (who was dealt to get Michael Choice), Jean Segura, Gary Sanchez, Eric Hosmer, Shelby Miller, and Francisco Lindor (amongst others).

Below is a brief list of players you may want to consider who should be up in the next two seasons that could make a big impact on your team, and another list for players who are much, much further away.

2013/2014 Call Ups

Tyler Skaggs (ARI – LHP) – Initially drafted by the Angels in the supplemental first round of the 2009 draft (the Mike Trout draft) and dealt to the Diamondbacks in the Dan Haren trade, Skaggs has dominated at every level.  While Trevor Bauer has received all of the headlines, Skaggs has quietly dominated in his 52.2 innings, striking out 45, walking 16, and putting up a 2.91 ERA in the offense-friendly environment of the Pacific Coast League.  Skaggs may not open the year with the Diamondbacks, but, barring injury, he won’t be in the minor leagues for long.

Zack Wheeler (NYM – RHP) – The Mets got Wheeler in the Carlos Beltran deal last July and he has not disappointed (unless you’re a Giants fan).  In 116 innings for AA Binghamton, Wheeler put up a 3.26 ERA while striking out 117 across 116 innings.  Since his promotion to AAA, Wheeler has had two starts.  He allowed 2 runs in 4.2 innings in his first start, and then allowed one run over six innings in his second start.  Wheeler may open the year in Queens, especially given the Mets’ dedication to youth.

Shelby Miller (STL – RHP) – The 19th overall pick in the 2009 draft, Miller has been moving up prospect rankings every year.  After an amazing 2011 – a combined 170 strikeouts while dominating High A and AA across 139.2 innings, Miller has looked merely human lately, putting up a 5.23 ERA across 112 innings.  But that does not tell the whole story, as he has been much better as of late, causing rumors of a September call-up.  I think Keith Law’s tweets will help elucidate:

Casey Kelly (SDP – RHP) – If you think Miller’s year has been up and down, the ultra athletic Kelly’s season has been even more up and down.  After dominating in spring training, Kelly hurt his elbow after two great AAA outings.  After three tune-up outings in Rookie ball, Kelly threw five innings in AA on August 10, striking out four and facing only 16 batters.  Kelly looks like a good bet to start the 2013 in San Diego, and will benefit from playing in one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in the league.

Jurickson Profar (TEX – SS) – On most teams, Profar would be getting called up now, if not a guaranteed call up in September, but the Rangers have Elvis Andrus, who is also quite good.  As far as shortstops go, Profar is the total package: smooth defense, good speed, average to plus power, and a great hit tool.  His ceiling is that of a perennial All-Star.  When does he come up?  That all depends…

Billy Hamilton (CIN – SS) – The fastest player in organized baseball presents a fascinating conundrum for the Reds’ front office.  They can bring him up for the September stretch run and use him as an extra infielder and pinch runner extraordinaire, or keep Hamilton in the minor leagues until next season.  Of course, Hamilton is more than just pure speed, after hitting 323/413/439 in the hyper-inflated offensive environment of the California League, Hamilton has hit 289/410/412 in AA.  With 139 stolen bases, Hamilton is just six behind what is believed to be the minor league record of 145, set by Vince Coleman in 1983.  When will Hamilton come up?  My guess is mid-2013, but having a pinch runner like Hamilton would cause absolute chaos in October.

Hak-Ju Lee (TBR – SS) – The main talent acquired in the Matt Garza trade, Lee shot up the prospect rankings due to his smooth defense and hitting in 2011, putting up a 318/389/443 like in the pitching-friendly High A Florida State League.  Despite a 261/336/360 line in 2012 while in AA, Lee hit better as the year wore on, putting up a 330/387/450 line in June and a 292/391/434 line in July.  Lee is also blocked by former #1 pick Tim Beckham, who is the shortstop in AAA, but Beckham is hitting 255/332/332 and was suspended for marijuana use.  While Lee is widely considered to be an above average defensive shortstop, Beckham is viewed as more of a utility infielder, significantly decreasing the chance that Lee will need to get past Beckham.

Wil Myers (KCR – OF) – After an injury limited Myers to a 254/353/393 line in 2011, Myers returned to AA to start 2012 and put up a 343/414/731 line across 35 games before being promoted to AAA, where he continued to hit, putting up a 300/377/572 line in 80 games.  While only Jeff Francoeur stands in his way, the Royals seem unwilling to bring up Myers and start his march toward arbitration during a losing season.  Expect Myers to be promoted in September, though his role may be undetermined as the season draws to a close.

Oscar Taveras (STL – OF) – After a 386/444/584 showing in A during 2011, Taveras has destroyed AA as a 20 year old in 2012, putting up a 321/382/574 line while primarily playing center field.  Though viewed as someone who will eventually need to move to right field, Taveras is widely viewed as one of the best pure hitters (if not the best pure hitter) in the minor leagues with an upside that is that of a perennial MVP candidate.  To quote Jason Parks, “His swing is going to bother scouts up the chain, and he’s also going to hit all the way up the chain. It’s not always pretty, and he swings the bat like he’s trying to kill someone breaking into his home, but it works.”

Dylan Bundy (BAL – RHP) – While Orioles fans are advocating for Dylan Bundy to be called up to help out in the bullpen in September, Bundy’s future lies as a Cy Young candidate-caliber pitcher for the next decade, becoming the next face of the Baltimore Orioles.   Of course, that is if Dan Duquette allows Bundy to use his best pitch.

Miguel Sano (MIN – 3B) – Who is leading the Midwest League in home runs, RBI, and extra base hits (ok, he’s tied)?  Miguel Sano.  Who is leading the Midwest League in walks and second in strikeouts?  Miguel Sano He turned 19 in May, he will probably end up as a right fielder, and he has 80 power (just ask Kevin Goldstein).  His power, and the Twins’ lack of talent will get him to the majors by the end of 2014, and he’ll be there to stay.

Austin Hedges (SDP – C) – I know what you’re thinking, how can a guy hitting 253/313/426 in A ball be in the major leagues in two years?  Simple – he’s the best defensive catcher current in the minors (well, of potential prospects, 35 year old veterans need not apply).  With San Diego’s pitching prospects, it may make sense to push Hedges quickly and start building trust to help San Diego compete in the future.

Anthony Rendon (WAS – 3B) – Possibly the only player who can stake a claim to the best pure hitter in the minors other than Taveras, Rendon has battled injuries since his time in college.  Recently promoted to AA, Rendon appears to be the last piece of the puzzle in Washington.  While he has exclusively played third base while in the minors (and DH’d, but that doesn’t really count), his defensive home is not assured.  Despite Rendon’s defensive acumen, Washington has gold glover Ryan Zimmerman locking down the position for nearly the next decade, so either Rendon will be shifted to first base or second base, or Zimmerman will move over to first base.  Either way, Rendon is not long for the minor leagues and figures to hit wherever his defensive home may be (and we all hope second or third, for fantasy purposes).

Project 2015, and beyond – Here is a brief list of players who won’t be up for at least two years, but, if they make the major leagues, figure to make an absolutely huge impact.

Archie Bradley (ARI – RHP) – While Skaggs and Bauer are viewed as more sure things, Bradley has the potential of being a true ace, the perpetual top of the rotation starter that opening day for a decade and, if everything goes right, starts Game 1 of the World Series.  Of course, Bradley’s potential is shown as he is second in strikeouts (the leader is 23, Bradley is 19) and his problems are shown as he leads the league in walks with 72, at 5/7 per nine innings.  But Bradley turned 20 just last week, underscoring how much time has to work on his command and unleash his fastball/curveball combination on major league hitters.

Gary Sanchez (NYY – C) – Gary Sanchez is probably the heir to the Jesus Montero crown in more ways than one – questions about his defensive future behind the plate, but a great hitting catcher whose bat will play at any position.  Of course, playing for the Yankees only serves to increase the comparisons, but Sanchez is his own player.  After being suspended by the Yankees in 2011 for poor attitude, he came back with a vengeance in 2012, hitting 297/353/517 in full season A, followed by 288/354/441 after his promotion to the pitcher-friendly Florida State League.  Sanchez’s ultimate value is related to his ability to stay behind the plate (at least enough to qualify as a catcher), but his bat should play even if he ends up as a first baseman.

Aaron Sanchez (TOR – RHP) – Part of the vaunted “Lansing Three” with Noah Syndergaard and Justin Nicolino, Sanchez has a great fastball to go with his developing curveball and changeup.  After somewhat struggling in 2011 (5.31 combined ERA in rookie and Low A ball), Sanchez has broken out in 2012, putting up a 2.36 ERA with 84 strikeouts across 76.1 innings.  While his command still needs work (5.2 walks per nine), he could be the next ace to ply his trade on the other side of the border.

Luis Heredia (PIT – RHP) – Signed out of Mexico has a 15 year old; Heredia has dominated the college-heavy New York-Penn League despite not turning 18 until August 10.  Despite not striking out that many batters (only 27 in 48.1 innings), Heredia has shown great command (2.6 walks per nine) while pitching with limited innings.  Next season should be Heredia’s first season in full-season ball, and in a season with #1 Gerrit Cole and #2 Jameson Taillon, Heredia may have the highest ceiling of them all.

Tyler Austin (NYY – OF) – in 2011, Austin began putting it together, hitting 390/438/622 in 20 games for the GCL Yankees then 323/402/542 for the Staten Island Yankees.  In 2012, Austin took the next step, hitting 320/405/598 in 70 games in full season A before being promoted to High A, where he has continued to hit, despite the pitching-friendly environment, putting up a 299/372/429 line while primarily playing right field.  Austin may become the next great slugging outfielder for the Yankees, though comparing anyone to Ruth, Dimaggio, Mantle, or Jackson is cruel, at best.  How good could Austin be?  The sky is the limit.

Francisco Lindor (CLE – SS) – Like Profar?  Then you should like Lindor too.  A switch hitter with great bat speed who is as close to a lock to stay as a shortstop as anyone else, Lindor projects to hit for a good average while hitting 15 home runs per season.  He lacks Profar’s MVP-level upside, but a shortstop who goes to the All-Star game every season is pretty valuable.

Adonys Cardona (TOR – RHP) – While his numbers have underwhelmed (4.55 ERA in 2011 and 6.32 ERA in 2012), the 6’1″ 170 pounder has the upside of a future ace and the pedigree associated with the player who received the largest bonus out of any prospects ever signed out of Venezuela, a list that includes Felix Hernandez, Johan Santana, Bobby Abreu, Carlos Gonzalez, and Jesus Montero.

Until next time, follow me @HypeProspect.

 

P.S.  Sorry about the complete lack of posts lately, work has been incredibly busy, but I should be able to return to my normal 1-2 per week schedule for the rest of the season!

http://thefuturists.mlblogs.com/2012/05/17/brett-lawrie-post-hype-prospect-blawrie13/

Carlos Correa: Real Deal or Future Bust? #Astros

When the Astros drafted Puerto Rican shortstop Carlos Correa first overall, they picked the player with the most potential for impact – and most potential to become a complete bust – in the draft.   A tremendous athlete, Correa has been lauded for his quick hands and potential at the plate, his grace and strong arm in the field, and his speed, Correa is a 6’3” shortstop approaching 200 pounds at age 17.  Much of the commentary has focused on Correa’s potential and his age – Correa won’t turn 18 until September 22 (the same day as Tommy Lasorda will turn 85), which further underscores his potential for improvement, especially given the results of a groundbreaking study published by Rany Jazayerli at Baseball Prospectus.

Carlos Correa - Source: Houston Chronicle

Source: Houston Chronicle

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

After Correa signed quickly – and for under slot - there was a lot of buzz around whether the Astros picked the best available player, a player who would sign quickly for less than the maximum, or had hastily gone Matt Bush on the organization. Personally, I think it’s a great move.  The Astros got a top flight talent at a premium position and saved some money to spread to other picks.

But I began to wonder out of the shortstops drafted out of high school in the first round of the major league draft:

  1. How many made it to the major leagues;
  2. Were successful major leaguers; and
  3. How many remained shortstops?

In order to answer these questions, I used MLB draft data from Baseball-Reference.com to pull all of the draft picks from 1990-2007 for the first two rounds.  Here is the full data set via Google Docs (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjuFn-ctXd3VdF9jQkVtMC03dE9TeENMYVg2SHZJOFE).

I filtered for:

  1. Listed position when being drafted, assuming the likelihood of a player moving TO shortstop was exceedingly low;
  2. Filtered for shortstop (as opposed to college players);
  3. Filtered for players drafted out of short stop; and
  4. Looked into only the first round (as second round picks would rarely be a prospect of the level of Correa).

Here’s what I found:

First Round HS SS in MLB Draft 1990-2007

38 players fit the requirements, including:

As you may notice, the success rate is exceedingly low, with only a few players who are even potential hall of famers and almost as many players are colossal flops as good players.  A total of 13 never made it to the major leagues in any capacity and five appearing in under 100 games.

Successful picks:

  1. Chipper Jones: Basically a third baseman from the start of his major league, though he played a little time in left field and even less at short stop.  What’s most amazing is was not even supposed to be the #1 pick – more on that here.
  2. Derek Jeter: A short stop from day one and has not played another defensive position in the major leagues (unless you count his games at DH).  Not the greatest range but sure hands and makes it look good.
  3. Alex Rodriguez:  Historic talent and historic centaur.

Good Picks:

  1. Pokey Reese:  Basically a defense-only player but, wow, could he pick it.
  2. Michael Cuddyer:  According to Baseball-Reference.com, he has never played short stop in the major leagues, primarily a right fielder (731 games), first baseman (214 games), and a third baseman (214 games).  Stopped playing shortstop after making 61(!) errors while playing for the Fort Wayne Wizards of the Midwest League at the age of 19.
  3. Felipe Lopez:  One good offensive year (291/352/486 in 2005), but appeared in 1185 games across 11 major league seasons.  He was a better hitter – and a worse fielder – than I realized.

Interesting Picks:

  1. Josh Booty:  After signing a contract reported to be worth $1.2 million, Booty struck out a lot and hit for some power.  Gave up baseball after 1998 and went to LSU to be their starting quarterback before being drafted by the Seattle Seahawks in the 6th round… and never appear in the NFL.
  2. Sergio Santos:  Santos was a good prospect who never hit enough and made a lot of errors; then he became a relief pitcher and is laughing at all of us.

Colossal Flops:

  1. Brandon Wood:  Read about him here.
  2. Matt Bush:  Read about him here.

 Players Whose Places Have Yet to be Determined:

  1. BJ Upton:  Doesn’t walk, power is streaky, good center fielder.  Looks like he will stall out in the “Good Pick” category.
  2. Justin Upton:  The better of the Upton brothers (so far), could be a perennial MVP candidate and on pace to join the “Successful Pick” category.
  3. Mike Moustakas:  Too little time to judge, but hitting 278/346/480 is a very good start.

 So what does this mean? 

Out of the 38, 13 (34%) never made it to the major leagues, 17 made it and had WAR below 5 (45%), for a total of 30/38 (79%).  Of the successful ones, only Derek Jeter (98.6%), Felipe Lopez (53.5%), and Alex Rodriguez (51.5%) have primarily been shortstops.  Pokey Reese primarily played second base with a fair amount of time at shortstop, Chipper Jones only appeared at shortstop more than six times once (38 in 1996), and Michael Cuddyer is the definition of a defensive tweener.

In short (pun intended), Carlos Correa is probably not going to reach his potential, but then again, neither are the rest of the first round picks, so the Astros made a great pick by grabbing for the stars because, frankly, you seem to have about as good of a chance of drafting Matt Bush with the #1 overall pick as picking Alex Rodriguez.

Also, because someone actually asked, here’s WAR for #1 overall picks that were drafted out of High School:

No 1 Overall Pick Shortstop out of High School 1990-2007

Until next time, follow me @HypeProspect.

Sources:

http://www.baseball-reference.com

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=correa000car

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?year_ID=2012&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lasorto01.shtml

http://www.perfectgame.org/players/playerprofile.aspx?ID=279388

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17173

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15295

Favorite Prospect Struggling? This could be a big problem.

Last week I wrote about a number of big prospects who struggled early in their careers but went on to be successful, from Hall of Famer Mike Schmidt to Matt Wieters.  But a prospect struggling might be a cause for alarm, as history is also littered with top prospects that got to the major leagues and failed miserably.

1. Brandon Wood.  It seems that Brandon Wood fooled everyone.  A top pick when drafted (#23) by the Angels, Wood impressed from the beginning, hitting 278/348/475 for the Provo Angels and 308/349/462 for the AZL Angels, both part of different Rookie Leagues.  The following season, Wood hit 251/322/404 for the Angels’ A-level affiliate in Cedar Rapids, garnering Baseball America’s #83 prospect ranking.  The following season, Wood absolutely destroyed the ball in High A Rancho Cucamonga, putting up a 321/383/672 line with 43 home runs and 51 doubles.  Wood’s stock skyrocketed, especially after his (Warning: SSS) 19 plate appearance trial in AAA, putting up a 316/316/526 line.  Wood was ranked #3 by Baseball America.  After a 276/355/552 line in AA Arkansas in 2006, Wood was ranked the #8 prospect by Baseball America; then #16 after a 272/338/497 line in AAA.  Wood’s struggles in the major leagues have been well documented.  After hitting 200/224/327 with 43 strikeouts in 157 PA while playing both shortstop and third base in 2008, Wood was sent back down to AAA.  Wood’s trials in the major leagues never seemed to get any better, including an amazingly bad 146/174/208 line in 2010 in 226 plate appearances that included 71 strikeouts with just six walks.  Wood fooled everyone, including Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein:

2.  Paul Wilson.  Wilson had it all: A dominating career at Florida State, a lightning fastball, a dominating slider, and a 6’5″ 235 lb frame.  Wilson was the #1 pick in the 1994 Rule IV draft and was immediately ranked the #16 prospect in baseball by Baseball America.  After struggling in his brief audition in 1994, Wilson dominated in his first full season of professional ball, putting up a 2.17 ERA for AA Binghamton in 120.1 innings followed by a 2.85 ERA for AAA Norfolk over 66.1 innings.  After the season, Wilson was ranked the #2 prospect in by Baseball America (behind Andruw Jones).  Wilson spent most of 1996 with the Mets, putting up a 5.38 ERA (75 ERA+) across 149 innings.  Wilson missed time while being on the DL with “tendinitis” in his shoulder, then came back to pitch the rest of the season before being diagnosed with a torn labrum and needing shoulder surgery.  Wilson made a few appearances at the end of 1997 in the low levels of the minor leagues before struggling in 1998 in the upper levels.  In the spring of 1999, Wilson had his elbow rebuilt and looked pretty good for the Mets’ AAA affiliate in 2000 before being dealt with Jason Tyner to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays for Bubba Trammell and Rick White.  Wilson looked great as the swingman for the Devil Rays, putting up a 3.35 ERA (148 ERA+) for the Rays.  Over the next four seasons, Wilson put up a combined 4.67 ERA (92 ERA+) across 124 games (111 starts) for the Devil Rays and the Cincinnati Reds before struggling further in 2005 (7.77 ERA in 9 starts) and having surgery on his labrum and rotator cuff.  Wilson retired early in 2006 after struggling in the minor leagues.

3.  Joel Guzman.  Joel Guzman serves as the ultimate cautionary tale whenever any team drafts or signs a big shortstop.  For every Alex Rodriguez, Cal Ripken, and Alfonso Soriano (laugh all you want, he was really good from 2002-2008), there are another 50 Joel Guzmans.  Signed by the Dodgers out of the Dominican Republic in 2001 for a then-record $2.25 million, Guzman played rookie ball at age 17 (hitting 245/329/370) and in A and High A at age 18 (hitting 241/271/387).  Guzman’s breakout came in 2004, when he hit 307/349/550 for the High A Vero Beach Dodgers in 357 plate appearances, before putting up a 280/325/522 line for the Jacksonville Suns of the AA Southern League.  Guzman’s prospect status jumped after 2004, Guzman’s age-19 season, being ranked #5 by Baseball America.  In 2005, Guzman (then 20) put up a solid 287/351/475 line, again in AA.  In 2005 Guzman, never a particularly good defensive player, made 25 errors in 99 games at shortstop and another four in 21 games at second base.  Guzman was also getting absolutely huge, growing to 6’7″ and being (kindly) listed at 225 lbs, with his reported weight much higher.  Despite his size, Guzman was still ranked the #26 prospect by Baseball America, which clearly still believed strongly in his bat.  In 2006, Guzman was hitting 297/353/464 for the AA Las Vegas 51s before being dealt to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays with Sergio Pedroza for Julio Lugo.  Guzman was assigned to AAA Durham, where he struggled, hitting 193/228/386.  After that, Guzman never really put it all together, appearing in 24 games in the major leagues and putting up a 232/306/321 line while primarily playing third base.  Guzman, plying in AA for the Baltimore Orioles, hit 279/344/519 in his age 25 season, but he will never amount to more than a very large cautionary tale, as is discussed in this article on TrueBlueLA.

4.   Hensley “Bam-Bam” Meulens.  Meulens had it all: size (6’4″, 200 lbs), power, and a truly amazing nickname.  Unfortunately he also swung at everything and often missed, which, coupled with a complete inability to consistently field a baseball, doomed him.  Muelens burst onto the prospect scene by hitting 285/376/510 at AAA Columbus, then being ranked the #30 prospect by Baseball America.  Muelens got a long look at the major league level in 1991, putting up a 222/276/319 line with 97 strikeouts in plate appearances, primarily playing left field.  For his major league career, Muelens hit 220/288/353 with 165 strikeouts in 549 plate appearances.  Of course, Muelens is now the hitting coach for the San Francisco Giants, which may explain why the Giants are, as a team, hitting 260/320/380 as a team, good for the 12th highest OPS in the NL.

5.  Dallas McPherson.  Drafted in the second round out of the Citadel in 2001, McPherson was supposed to be a slugging third baseman, and exploded onto the scene in his second full season with a 308/404/606 line with 18 home runs in 77 games for Ranch Cucamonga and a 314/426/569 line with 5 home runs in 28 games for AA Arkansas in 2003.  After the season Baseball America ranked McPherson the #33 prospect in baseball.  McPherson began the season back in AA Arkansas, where he hit 321/404/660 in 68 games before being moved up to AA Salt lake, where he put up a 313/370/680 line in 67 games.  Brought up for a cup of tea in September, McPherson hit 225/279/475.  After the season, McPherson was rated the #12 prospect by Baseball America.  In 2005, McPherson opened the season as the Angels’ starting 3B, putting up a weak 244/295/449 line (OPS+ of 96) and has bounced between the minor leagues and the major league ever since.  A typical AAAA slugger, McPherson hit 42 home runs for AAA Albuquerque in 2008, but has only appeared in 62 games in the major leagues since the end of 2005.

6.  Todd Van Poppel.  Todd Van Poppel was the best prospect in the 1990 draft; Chipper Jones was the first overall pick in the 1990 draft (and the player in the 1990 draft who had the best career).  With a fluid motion, a dynamite fastball, and an ideal 6’5″, 210 lb frame, Van Poppel widely viewed as the best pitching prospect in nearly a decade.  Van Poppel dropped as far as he did in the draft because he committed to the University of Texas and used it as leverage to scare other teams off with record-setting bonus demands.  After telling the Atlanta Braves not to draft him (they took Jones), the Oakland A’s drafted him and gave him a then-record $1.2 million major league contract.  After being assigned to low A Southern Oregon, Van Poppel looked the part of the future ace, putting up a 1.12 ERA in five starts across 24 innings, striking out 32.  Upon his promotion to full season A for three more starts, Van Poppel put up a 3.95 ERA across 13.2 innings while striking out 17.  Van Poppel also walked ten batters, a fact that was largely ignored due to his strikeout numbers and projections.  After being named the #1 prospect by Baseball America, Van Poppel was assigned to AA Huntsville, where he pitched generally well, putting up a 3.47 ERA in 24 starts across 132.1 innings while striking out 115 and walking 90.  Van Poppel made one start for the A’s, pitching 4.2 innings, allowing seven hits, walking two, and striking out six, while allowing five runs.  After the season, Van Poppel was ranked the #2 prospect in baseball (behind 1991 #1 pick, Brien Taylor).  Sent to AAA for 1992, Van Poppel put up a 3.97 ERA in nine starts across 45.1 innings while striking out 29 and walking 35 for AAA Tacoma.  1992 was a lost year for Van Poppel, as he spent the bulk of the year on the DL.  Despite the plunging strikeout to walk ratio, Baseball America ranked Van Poppel the #7 prospect in baseball, behind Chipper Jones, Taylor, Cliff Floyd, Carlos Delgado (then a catcher), Tim Salmon, and Wil Cordero.  Splitting time in 1993 between AAA Tacoma and Oakland, Van Poppel put up a 5.83 ERA in AAA and a 5.04 ERA in the major leagues.  From that point on, Van Popple struggled, putting up a career 5.58 ERA in the major leagues across 359 games with only 98 starts.

So, in short, your top prospect may never ever become what you had hoped so you should trade him for Adam Dunn.  Right now.

Until next time, @HypeProspect.

Sources:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/all-time.html

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=wood–002ric

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/woodbr01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wilsopa02.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=wilson001pau

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/guzmajo03.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=guzman001irv

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=meulen001hen

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/meulehe01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mcpheda01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=mcpher001dal

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vanpoto01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=vanpop001tod

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=year_round&year_ID=1990&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg

Favorite Prospect Struggling? Might Be No Big Deal!

One of the most frustrating things is when a top prospect comes up and does not just fail, but falls flat on his face.  One of the most recent, and frustrating, examples is San Francisco Giants first baseman Brandon Belt.  After being drafted in the fifth round in the 2009 draft out of the University of Texas at Austin, Belt was assigned to High A and absolutely destroyed the ball, putting up a 383/492/628 line in 333 plate appearances before being promoted to AA, where Belt kept on hitting to the tune of a 337/413/623 line across 201 plate appearances.  Belt was promoted to AAA for a brief 61 plate appearances, putting up a respectable 229/393/563 line to end the season.  In 2011, Belt spent time in the major leagues, being played inconsistently by Manager Bruce Bochy while failing to produce with a 225/306/412 line and destroying AAA pitching to the tune of a 309/448/527 line.  In 2012, Belt has had similar issues in the major league, putting up a much-improved 230/347/340 line while making an adjustment to stand more upright during his at bats.

But take heart Giants fans (or Royals fans for Eric Hosmer, or Rays fans for Matt Moore), there is a long, long list of great baseball players who were top prospects and struggled early on, eventually becoming great baseball players.

1.  Michael Jack Schmidt.  Chances are if you know more than three males born from 1975 through 1985, one of them will be named Michael or Jack (or Michael Jack) and there is a really good reason for this: Mike Schmidt was an amazing baseball player.  Before he began putting up Hall of Fame numbers, Schmidt put up a putrid 196/324/373 line in 1973.  Schmidt’s learning curve was steep, as he put up a 282/395/546 line, leading the National League with 36 home runs, 138 strikeouts (the following year he would strike out 180 times), and a .546 slugging percentage.

2.  Matt Wieters.  Matt Wieters was supposed to be the next big thing after he was drafted #5 overall by the Baltimore Orioles out of Georgia Tech in 2007.  After being ranked the #12 prospect by Baseball America before playing a single professional game and #1 after putting up a 345/448/576 line in High A and a 365/460/625 line in AA in 2008.  In 2009, Wieters put up a 305/387/504 line in AAA before being promoted to the major leagues.  Wieters struggled his first few seasons in the major leagues, but has since turned into a consistent All-Star and Gold Glove winner who is consistently in the discussion for the best catcher in the league.

3.  Edgardo Alfonzo.  Before becoming one of the best second baseman in the league from 1999-2002, Alfonzo was a top prospect in the Mets organization, being ranked as the #74 prospect by Baseball America after the 1992 season and #31 prospect by Baseball America after the 1993 season.  Alfonzo put up a 278/301/382 line in 1995 and a 261/304/345 line in 1996 before figuring it out in 1997 to the tune of a 315/391/432 line.  Alfonzo’s peak was short due to back problems, but he was one of the most underrated baseball players, and a key cog for the Mets, in the late 90s and early 2000s.

4.  Adrian Beltre.  Beltre is one of the more fascinating career paths, from a top prospect (Baseball America ranked him the #30 prospect after a 1996 season where he hit a combined 284/366/519 at full season A and High A age 17 and then the #3 prospect after he hit 317/407/561 in High A in 1997).  After putting  up a 321/411/581 line in 64 games in AA as a 19 year old in 1998, Beltre hit 215/278/369 in 77 games for the Dodgers.  Beltre played with varying levels of success for the next five years, putting up a combined 265/323/432 line before breaking out with an amazing 334/388/629 line in 2004, his contract year.  After signing a five-year, $63 million contract with the Seattle Mariners, Beltre seemingly returned to his previous level, putting up a combined 266/317/442 line over five years.  In 2010, Beltre finally put it all together for the Boston Red Sox, playing Gold Glove-caliber defense while putting up a 321/365/553 line, a level he has generally maintained during his season and two months with the Texas Rangers.

5.   Jayson Werth.  After being the #22 pick of the 1997 draft by the Baltimore Orioles, Werth hit in every stop in the minor leagues and was consistently a highly-regarded prospect.  Baseball America ranked him #52 after 1998 and #48 after 1999.  After an off season in 2000, Werth bounced back after being dealt to the Blue Jays for Jason Bale and Baseball America ranked him #70 and then #94 after 2002.  Werth then spent the next few years raking in the minors and struggling in the majors (albeit often with injuries), including being dealt to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Jason Frasor.  After having the Dodgers not offer him a contract, Werth signed with the Phillies as a free agent and finally broke out.

6.  Ryne Sandberg.  Sandberg was a 20th round pick by the Phillies in 1978, so he was not exactly the most highly regarded prospect until he hit 310/403/469 as a 20-year old in AA and 293/352/397 as a 21 year old in AAA, while stealing 32 bases both years, primarily as a shortstop.  After being traded by the Phillies with Larry Bowa for Ivan de Jesus, Sandberg won the National League Rookie of the Year with a 271/312/372 line followed by a 261/316/351 line in his second year.  Sandberg broke out in 1984, winning the MVP with a 314/367/520 line, cementing himself as the Cubs second baseman of the future.

Of course, this isn’t to say that Belt, Hosmer, and Moore will all bounce back and become great players (or even good ones, history is littered with top prospects who never panned out), but it should be noted that prospects often struggle early on and have very productive careers – not everyone can start a career like Ralph Kiner.

Of course, Giants fans can just keep checking for Brandon Belt trade rumors at MLBTradeRumors.

Until next time, follow me @HypeProspect.

Sources:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltbr01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=belt–001bra

http://nbcbayarea.csnbayarea.com/05/27/12/Bochy-convinces-Belt-to-make-adjustment/nbcbay_landing.html?blockID=714996

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hosmeer01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/moorema02.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/schmimi01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wietema01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=wieter001mat

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/alfoned01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=alfonz003edg

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltrad01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=beltre001adr

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/werthja01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=werth-001jay

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sandbry01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=sandbe001ryn

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/all-time.html

Prospect Helium Watch – Billy Hamilton – @b_ham_3

The fastest player in the California League, if not all of professional baseball, is Cincinnati Reds shortstop Billy Hamilton.

Hamilton’s speed has long been viewed as both his calling card and his biggest assets.  While attending Taylorsville High School in Taylorsville, Mississippi (also the hometown of Chicago Bears’ quarterback Jason Campbell), Hamilton signed a letter of intent to play baseball and football (as a wide receiver) at Mississippi State University Bulldogs.  While at Taylorsville High School, Hamilton also starred on the basketball team, averaging 35 points per game.  While his hitting approach was considered raw, Hamilton’s elite speed, bat speed, and athleticism earned considerable praise.   Watch Hamilton hit and throw here:

After taking Arizona State right-handed pitcher Mike Leake with their first round pick (#8), the Reds took Southern California right-hander Brad Boxberger in the supplemental first round (#43), the Reds took Hamilton with the 57th overall pick.  Shortly after the draft, Hamilton was asked if he was planning to attend MSU or sign with the Reds, and he replied:  “I think I’m going [with] baseball.  I really don’t know yet, but I’m pretty sure I am, though.   I’d rather start my whole career off now rather than later.”  Hamilton continued, saying that baseball was his first love and he was anxious to grab hold of the opportunity to play professional baseball.

Hamilton signed and was assigned to the Rookie Level GCL Reds of the Gulf Coast League and immediately struggled in his first experience in professional baseball, hitting a putrid 205/235/277, striking out 47 times in 43 games.  One area where Hamilton had success was in stealing 14 bases despite only getting on base 45 times, showcasing his world-class speed.  After the season, Hamilton was viewed as little more than a speedster with impressible tools and tremendous upside who was far from actualization.  Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein ranked Hamilton the #10 prospect in the Reds’ system, commenting that Hamilton is “far more of an athlete than a baseball player at this point” and Hamilton had “little feel for the strike zone,” as was evidenced by his high strike out total.  Baseball America ranked Hamilton the #11 prospect, echoing many similar comments to Goldstein’s.

In 2010, Hamilton was held back in extended spring training for extra instruction before being assigned to the Rookie Level Billings Mustangs of the Pioneer League, where the improvement was stark.  In 69 games, Hamilton put up a 318/383/456 line with 13 doubles, 10 triples, and two home runs.  More amazingly, Hamilton stole 48 bases in 57 attempts and struck out 56 times, or approximately three every five games.  While in Billings, Hamilton played 13 games at shortstop and 55 games at second base, fueling speculation that the Reds did not view Hamilton as a shortstop in the long-term.  After the season, the accolades began rolling in.  Baseball America ranked Hamilton the #2 prospect in the Reds’ system, behind only Cuban fireballer Aroldis Champman, along with naming Hamilton the “Fastest Baserunner” and “Best Athlete,” and projecting him as the starting second baseman for the 2014 Reds.  BP’s Kevin Goldstein ranked Hamilton the #3 prospect in the Reds’ system, behind Chapman and Devin Mesoraco, stating that “[i]f one could give a grade higher than 80 for speed, Hamilton would certainly earn it. He is arguably the fastest prospect in the game, with the kind of blinding speed that turns any ground ball to the left side into an adventure. He’s already a potent basestealer who swiped 48 bags in just 69 games and was safe on 29 of his last 30 attempts.”  Goldstein questioned Hamilton’s ability to stay at shortstop, but commented that his value as a second baseman who bats leadoff was incredible.  Goldstein ranked Hamilton the #46 prospect in all of baseball, comparable to Baseball America, who ranked Hamilton #50.

Around now is when I became aware of Billy Hamilton, from episode 19 of Up and In: The Baseball Prospectus Podcast, where Goldstein and Jason Parks each picked three prospects that they felt would have breakout seasons in 2011.  While there were other players picked that were more universally renowned (Goldstein would later pick Bryce Harper) and Parks joked (maybe not as much of a joke) that he “wanted to pick all Royals.”  After Parks picked Yankees’ catcher Gary Sanchez, Goldstein picked Hamilton as his “speed guy,” though Parks did not select that way.  Goldstein stated that the issues with Hamilton were that he was from a small town in Mississippi and was very thin and not a classic athletic frame.  Calling Hamilton “raw like sushi,” Goldstein discussed Hamilton’s issues in his first season in professional baseball and the work done by the Reds to make Hamilton into a better player, specifically pitch recognition, making contact, and using his speed to get on base.  Projecting Hamilton as the type of guy who would hit .300, draw some walks, hit tons of triples, and steal 60 bases, Goldstein extolled his virtues while cautioning that Hamilton may never develop enough strength to become a good enough hitter to use his speed.

Assigned to the Full Season A Dayton Dragons of the Midwest League for 2011, Hamilton caused a buzz, hitting 278/340/360 with a mind-boggling 103 steals in 123 attempts.  Hamilton’s season is more amazing when broken down by month or by half.

By Month:

 

 

 

By Half (approximate – April through June and July through September):

Billy Half 2011

 

 

The differences are stark:  Hamilton hit 228/284/315 in the first half and 333/396/410 in the second half.  While his isolated power was never impressive (and many of his doubles and triples were a direct product of his crazy speed), Hamilton’s batting average spiked in the second half as he showed improved plate discipline and improved contact rates.  This can be shown by his improvement in SO/PA rate by month and half:

Billy KPA Half 2011 Billy KPA Month 2011


 

 

 

Hamilton’s strike out rate was higher for the first three months of the season than for any of the final three months, which coincided with his increased batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, and nearly any other simple metric used to measure performance.  Amazingly, Hamilton’s rates in July and September were lower than his overall rate, and his August rate was only slightly above his season average, truly splitting Hamilton’s seasons into two separate halves.

Unlike many young players appearing in their first grueling full season of professional baseball, Hamilton did not decrease his stolen base rate (0.75 SB/game in the first half and 0.77 SB/game in the second half) as the season wore on, even spiking in rate in September as he went all out in an attempt to steal 100 bases, stealing eight in his final four games.

After the season, the prospect prognosticators took note, as Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus ranked Hamilton the #22 prospect in baseball and the #1 prospect in the Reds organization, saying that Hamilton “has been known to go from first to third on singles to left field, has scored from second on sacrifice flies, and is a threat to steal both second and third whenever he reaches base.”  Baseball America agreed, ranking Hamilton the #48 prospect in baseball and #2 prospect in the Reds organization (behind Devin Mesoraco).  Baseball America further named Hamilton the “Fastest Baserunner” in the Cincinnati Reds’ system and the Midwest League, along with the “Best Athlete” in the Reds’ system, and the “Best Baserunner” in the Midwest League, all in 2011.

Entering 2012, there was a lot of focus as to how well Hamilton would be in the High A California League.  While the California League is one of the most hitter-friendly leagues, if not the most hitter-friendly league, many hitters often abandon their approach in search of the long ball, causing many hitters to increase power numbers while increasing strikeout totals.  Hamilton started the year by blasting a home run in his second plate appearance for the Bakersfield Blaze in the season opener.  Through his first two months of the season, Hamilton put up a robust 319/395/448 line with an astonishing 57 stolen bases in 69 attempts.  Despite only the single home run hit in the first game, Hamilton’s slugging percentage has been fueled by ten doubles and seven triples.  Flying around the bases, Hamilton has been lighting up the California League while decreasing his strikeout rate (.8 per game for the season, down from 1 per game in 2011) while increasing his walk rate (.5 per game, up from .39 per game).

In responding to a question about Hamilton turning into Joey Gathright (basically an athlete with great speed who never put it all together despite being able to jump over a car), Goldstein responded, “He’s way better than Gathright, and faster. Almost zero chance to stay at SS, and I think they should move him to CF today.”  Moving Hamilton to centerfield has been a common refrain, with Ben Badler of Baseball America stating “I think the Reds will try to keep him [at shortstop], but when you have the fastest player in all of baseball, I’d just put him in center field and let his speed take over.”  Matthew Eddy of Baseball America echoed similar sentiments but for a slightly different reason, stating that Hamilton is “facing a likely shift to center field if he plays his way off shortstop.”

But how fast is Billy Hamilton?

From Baseball America’s Jim Callis:

From the ever-entertaining duo at Productive Outs:

From Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein:

Of course, if you don’t believe them, check out a few amazing facts unearthed by Baseball Prospectus’ Sam Miller:

  • Pitchers have committed three balks while Billy Hamilton was on base.
  • Billy Hamilton has scored from third when the catcher threw to first to complete another batter’s strikeout.
  • And Billy Hamilton scored the walk-off run on April 20 on a sacrifice fly. To the second baseman.

Of course, what’s most amazing is that it appears that Billy Hamilton has no nickname.  I have seen a few referring to him as “Sliding Billy” in reference to Hall of Famer Billy Hamilton, but he played more than 100 years ago (though he was also a great base stealer – stealing 100 four times and 914, good for third all time, for his career) in an entirely different era.  Hamilton needs his own nickname and I think this is as good as a situation as any to come up with one.

I’m going to propose a few, please feel free to vote for one or tweet at me and I will add your suggestion to the list.

Until next time, follow me @HypeProspect.

Sources:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=hamilt002bil

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?year_ID=2009&draft_round=2&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090609&content_id=5228292&vkey=news_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/index.cgi?draft_round=1&year_ID=2009&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round

http://www.nems360.com/bookmark/2686528/blog+entry-Hamilton+Drafted+by+Reds-+Likely+Going+Pro

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9988

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2011/2611110.html

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/all-time.html

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12880

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=sa500815&position=SS&type=&gds=2011-04-07&gde=2011-09-10

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16736

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15854

http://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/89332

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2012/2612581.html

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12121

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=sa500815&position=SS

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/prospect-hot-sheet/2012/2613349.html

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/prospect-hot-sheet/2012/2613393.html

https://twitter.com/jimcallisBA/status/206864213040312320

https://twitter.com/ProductiveOuts/status/202957249243652098

http://twitter.com/#!/Kevin_Goldstein/statuses/200846246875901953

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16736

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/eye-on-baseball/18505512

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090609&content_id=5228292&vkey=news_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

http://baseballprospectnation.com/2012/05/02/scouting-report-billy-hamilton-ss/

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/5/17/3025083/prospect-of-the-day-billy-hamilton-ss-cincinnati-reds-scouting-report

http://www.bakersfieldcalifornian.com/sports/x796275155/BLAZE-PLAYBILLY-BALL

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?year_ID=2009&draft_round=2&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round

Non-Hype Prospect – Johan Santana – @johansantana

As I walked back to my apartment from dinner Friday night, I noticed that I had a lot of text messages – a rarity as I do not text much – and I realized that Johan Santana had thrown the first no-hitter in the history of the New York Mets.

Though many people know Santana’s exploits in the major leagues – the Cy Young awards, the sub-1 WHIPs – Santana’s path was anything but ordinary.  In 1995, the Houston Astros signed Santana out of Venezuela as a center fielder.  Due to his arm strength, left-handedness, and perceived inability to become a major league hitter, Santana was soon converted to a pitcher.  After finally being granted a visa, Santana was assigned to the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League Astros, where he put up a 7.93 ERA across nine games (five starts) and 36.1 innings.  Promoted to the Short Season A Auburn Doubledays of the New York Penn League, Santana made one four-inning start to end the season, allowing just one run and one hit, walking six and striking out five.

To start the 1998 season, Santana was held back in extended spring training, and was sent back to Auburn in June, striking out 88 while walking 21 in 86.1 innings over 15 starts, putting up a 4.36 ERA.  At the end of the season, Santana made two appearances for the full season A Quad Cities River Bandits of the Midwest League.  Santana struggled in his two appearances, putting up a 9.45 ERA over 6.2 innings.

In 1999, Santana had his best season pitching for the Michigan Battle Cats of the Midwest League, putting up a 4.66 ERA in 27 games (26 starts) over 160.1 innings, striking out 150 and walking 55 in his age-20 season.

After the season, the Astros left Santana unprotected in the Rule V draft, and, just two years after losing Bobby Abreu in the 1997 Expansion Draft, the Florida Marlins selected Santana with the second pick of the 1999 Rule V draft.  The Marlins then dealt Santana to the Minnesota Twins for Jared Camp, the first pick of the 1999 Rule V draft.

The Rule V draft is fascinating, as to be eligible for the Rule V draft, a player:

  • Is not included on the 40-man roster of the organization holding his contract; and
  • Either:
    • Has been in the minors and/or majors for at least four years, if he was signed after his 19th birthday; or
    • Has been in the minors and/or majors for at least five years, if he was signed before his 19th birthday.

In short, to hold onto Santana, all the Astros had to do was put him on the 40-man roster.  However, to hold onto Santana, the Twins were required to keep Santana on their major league roster for the 2000 entire season, something that is difficult to do when a young player has not played at a level even close to the majors.  The Twins, sensing the talent in Santana, kept him on the roster as the entire season as the long man and a spot starter, appearing in 30 games, pitching 86 innings with a 6.49 ERA.  In 2001, Santana served in a similar role, pitching 43.2 innings with a much-improved 4.74 ERA before straining his left elbow flexor and missing two months.

In 2002, Santana was to be turned back into a starter and opened the season in the minor leagues for the first time in two years, putting up a 3.14 ERA across 48.2 innings for the AAA Edmonton Trappers of the Pacific Coast League before being brought back to Minnesota.  Santana started to show his talent, putting up a 2.99 ERA in 27 games (14 start) for the Twins, striking out 137 and walking 49.

In 2003, Santana opened the season as a middle reliever for the Twins, putting up a 1.59 ERA in his first 11 appearances.  Santana made a spot start, going five innings against the high-powered offense of the Boston Red Sox, allowing no runs in five innings.  After seven more relief appearances with a 6.52 ERA, Santana became a starter for the duration of the season, putting up a sparkling 3.22 ERA across 92.1 innings, putting up an 8-2 record.  During the 2003 season, Santana put up a 3.07 ERA across 45 games (18 starts) while striking out 169 batters and walking 47 batters.  Despite the seemingly pedestrian statistics (though the 3.07 ERA was good for a 148 ERA+), Santana picked up one fifth-place Cy Young vote.

In 2004, Santana dominated, putting up a 2.61 ERA across 228 innings, striking out 265 with a 20-6 record.  Even more amazing was the second half of Santana’s season.  After putting up a 3.78 ERA in 19 starts across 123.2 innings, Santana overwhelmed opponents with a 1.21 ERA across 15 starts over 104.1 innings while averaging 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings pitched.  Even more amazing was Santana’s final six starts of the season, all in September.  Across 40 innings, Santana allowed only two runs (both earned), while striking out 52.  After the season, Santana was awarded the American League Cy Young award.

Over the next three years, Santana established himself as one of the most reliable and dominating pitchers in the major leagues, winning another Cy Young, coming in third place and fifth place one time each.  From 2004 through 2007, Santana put up a 70-32 record, striking out 983 while walking 198 and allowing 705 hits.  In 2005, Santana went 16-7 with a 2.87 ERA.  In 2006, Santana went 19-6 with a 2.77 ERA, striking out 245 to lead the league in strikeouts for the third consecutive season.  Additionally, Santana won the pitching triple crown, leading the American league in wins, ERA, and strikeouts.  In 2007, Santana seemed to take a step backwards, put up a 3.33 ERA across 219 innings and had his first WHIP higher than 1.000 since 2003.

After the season, the Twins, fearing Santana would leave as a free agent after his contract expired after 2008, looked for a team willing to give up multiple top prospects.   Rumors swirled around multiple large-market franchises, including the Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox, and New York Yankees.  The Yankees were rumored to be offering a number of packages involving different prospects, including Melky Cabrera, Phil Hughes, Jeffrey Marquez, Ian Kennedy, and Jhonny Nunez.  The Red Sox were dangling a number of packages as well, including packages that included a combination of Jacoby Ellsbury, Jon Lester,  Clay Buchholz, Jed Lowrie, and veteran Coco Crisp.  The Dodgers were dangling packages involving prospects Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw, who was viewed as the best pitching prospect at the time.

While the Mets were rumored to be involved, they refused to part with top prospect Fernando Martinez, thereby significantly decreasing the possibility they would acquire the ace.  In the end, the Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers were unable to acquire Santana and it was the dark-horse Mets who acquired Santana for Deolis Guerra, Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber, and Kevin Mulvey.

The Mets, fresh off one of the largest collapses in baseball history (at that point, possibly only eclipsed by the 2004 Yankees in the ALCS and the 1964 Phillies), needed to acquire another arm and make a splash.  Without giving up their top prospect, Fernando Martinez (#20 in Baseball America), the Mets were able to acquire one of the best pitchers in the game.  In the deal, the Mets paid a high price, as Deolis Guerra (#35 in Baseball America) was fresh off a season in High A St. Lucie as an 18-year old, an age most people are finishing up High School, Carlos Gomez (#52 in Baseball America, after being #60 in the previous year) showed significant upside in his brief trial with the Mets, Humber struggled in AAA after being the #3 overall pick in 2004, and Mulvey showed a lot of promise in AA after being a second round pick in 2006.  In short, while the Mets did not give up their top prospect, they gave up a lot of talent to acquire Santana.

In 2008, Santana did not disappoint.  Leading the National League with 34 starts, 234.1 innings, and 964 batters faced, Santana put up a 2.53 ERA and capped the season with one of his best starts of the season in the 161st game of the season, a sparkling 117-pitch complete game shutout, allowing three hits and walking three more, striking out nine against the Florida Marlins.  Unfortunately, the Mets struggled to complete the season yet again, missing out on the playoffs in the final day.  After the season, Santana had surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his knee.

In 2009, Santana pitched well, putting up a 3.13 ERA across 25 starts before being shut down in late August due to bone chips in his throwing shoulder after the Mets fell out of contention.  Santana would return in 2010, putting up a 2.98 ERA in 29 starts across 199 innings before being shut down in September due to an Anterior Capsule Tear.  A capsule is a soft tissue envelope that helps to attach to the scapula, humerus, and the head of the bicep.  Due to this injury, Santana missed nearly the entire 2011 season, only making two appearances at High A St. Lucie.

In 2012, Santana returned with a vengeance, striking out 68 in 68 innings, and leading the National League with 11 starts and two complete game shutouts, including the no hitter on June 1, the first in Mets history – 8,020 games.

After the game, Santana addressed the Mets, saying, “[t]onight we all made history, that’s all that matters.  I give it to you guys, because you guys made it happen.”  Santana’s game was amazing for a number of reasons, it was the first time he had fewer than three hits in a complete game and the most pitches he ever threw in one game, with his 134 pitches amounting to nine more than he had ever thrown in a professional baseball game.

By sheer coincidence (or was it?), the next day I attended a Baseball Prospectus event at CitiField where I, along with a number of other baseball fans, had the opportunity to hear a number of baseball writers including Baseball Prospectus’ Jason Parks and Ben Lindbergh; BP and SI.com’s Jay Jaffe; and MLB.com’s Corey Schwartz.  Additionally, there was a 30-minute question and answer session with Mets General Manager Sandy Alderson.  Alderson opened by discussing Santana’s outing, discussing Manager Terry Collins’ decision to allow Santana to throw 134 pitches despite only recently coming back from shoulder surgery.  Alderson, while showing a clear preference for not allowing Santana to throw 134 pitches, commented that “probabilities, mathematics take a back seat to emotion,” showing his support for Collins’ decision.

In the end, Santana’s no hitter, the first in Mets’ history, was something that he will remember for years and so will a great a number of Mets, former teammates, and sports fans.  But the best comment is from Johan Santana himself:

Until next time, follow me @HypeProspect.

Sources:

http://www.johansantana.org/johan-santana-mets-ace-57

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=santan001joh

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-10-most-interesting-rule-5-draft-picks-1981-2007/

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/santajo02.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=santajo02&t=p&year=2002

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=santajo02&t=p&year=2003

http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/awards_2003.shtml#ALcya

http://bronxrumors.blogspot.com/2009/08/johan-santana-trade-revisited.html

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3129086

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3138088

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/newsstand/discussion/rumor_twins_ace_johan_santana_to_dodgers/

http://aarongleeman.com/tag/fernando-martinez/

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=guerra001deo

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=gomez-003car

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=humber001phi

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=mulvey001kev

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/all-time.html

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martife02.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=martin005jes

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=santajo02&t=p&year=2008

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYN/NYN200809270.shtml

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16645

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=755&position=P

Post Hype Prospect – Casey Kelly – @IamCaseyKelly

Every once in a while an athlete so talented comes out of high school who has the natural ability to play two premium positions.  Often, those athletes are stars in multiple sports, whose natural talents and flashes of brilliance mask a lack of feel for playing baseball, with those athletes later failing to succeed at any level due to an ability to turn those physical tools into baseball playing ability.  Out of Sarasota High School in Sarasota, Florida, one of those athletes was the 2008 first round pick (#30 overall) of the Boston Red Sox, Casey Kelly.  Kelly was viewed as a top prospect both as a shortstop and a pitcher, along with being a good enough quarterback to get a scholarship offer from the University of Tennessee.  Video of Kelly’s reaction to being drafted:

Kelly, who was named Mr. Baseball Florida for 2008, quickly signed with the Red Sox, agreeing to a $3 million signing bonus, the seventh largest in the 2008 draft class, behind only Buster Posey (#5/Giants), Tim Beckham (#1/Rays), Pedro Alvarez (#2/Pirates), Eric Hosmer (#3/Royals), Justin Smoak (#11/Rangers), and Brian Matusz (#4/Orioles).  Kelly was sent to the Rookie Level GCL Red Sox, where he played shortstop and hit poorly, putting up a 215/255/331 line in 36 games before being promoted to the Short Season A Lowell Spinners of the New York Penn League, where he played shortstop and hit well, putting up a 344/344/563 line.  Despite the poor showing, Kelly was still viewed as an elite prospect, with Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus calling Kelly “the most talented two-way player available in the draft,” while raving about Kelly’s power potential, good defensive range and instincts, and plus-plus (70 on the 20-80 scale) arm.  Goldstein dinged Kelly for his tendency to chase pitches and generally unrefined game.  Goldstein ranked Kelly #6 in the Red Sox system.  Baseball America generally agreed, expressing similar concerns and ranked Kelly the #6 prospect in the Red Sox system, naming Kelly as the pitcher with the “Best Curveball” in the Red Sox’s organization.

For 2009, the Red Sox struck a deal with Kelly.  The Red Sox wanted Kelly to solely focus on being a pitcher while Kelly preferred to play every day and remain a shortstop.  Kelly would be a pitcher for approximately half of the season and then play shortstop for the duration of the season.  After the season, there would be a discussion between the Red Sox and Kelly regarding Kelly’s future based upon potential and results.  Kelly was assigned to the Greenville Drive of the A Level South Atlantic League, where he absolutely dominated, putting up a 1.12 ERA over 9 starts and 48.1 innings, striking out 39 batters while slowing 32 hits and walking only nine batters.  After being named to the South Atlantic League All-Star Team, Kelly was promoted to the High A Salem Red Sox of the Carolina League, Kelly continued to excel, putting up a 3.09 ERA over 8 starts and 46.2 innings, striking out 35 while allowing 33 hits and only seven walks.  At this point, Kelly became a shortstop, putting up a 214/290/464 line while back in the Rookie Level Gulf Coast League and a putrid 224/305/313 line while playing for the Greenville Drive of the South Atlantic League.  During the 2009 season, Kelly also appeared in the Futures Game for the United States team, pitching one inning and allowing no base runners on nine pitches, six of them strikes.

After the 2009 season, Kelly drew rave reviews for his pitching and was named the Boston Red Sox Minor League Pitcher of the Year.  Baseball America ranked Kelly the #2 prospect in the Red Sox’s system (behind Ryan Westmoreland) and the #24 prospect in all of Baseball.  Baseball America named Kelly the pitcher in the Red Sox’s organization with the “Best Fastball,” “Best Curveball,” “Best Changeup,” and “Best Control;” also naming Kelly the #6 prospect in the Carolina League and  the #2 prospect in the South Atlantic League.  Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein generally agreed with Baseball America, ranking Kelly the #2 prospect in the Red Sox’s system (behind Westmoreland) and the #30 prospect in all of Baseball.  Goldstein commented how advanced Kelly was as a pitcher, with “excellent sink and run” on an 89-93 mile per hour fastball, an already “plus” curveball, and a developing changeup that looked like it would become a plus offering.  Additionally, Goldstein noted Kelly’s athleticism and his “smooth, repeatable, and effortless” delivery.  After the season, it was agreed that Kelly would no longer play shortstop and would focus his energy on becoming a pitcher full-time.

Kelly pitching in the Futures Game:

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?topic_id=7962336&content_id=7150939

In 2010, Kelly appeared in two spring training games for the Red Sox, putting up a 3.60 ERA across five innings in his first appearance against big league hitters.  Below is video of Kelly pitching against Northeastern University:

For the 2010 season, Kelly was aggressively assigned to the Portland Sea Dogs of the AA Eastern League, where Kelly struggled significantly, putting up a 5.31 ERA across 95 innings in 21 starts, averaging under 4.2 innings per start.  Kelly allowed 118 hits (11.2/9) and walked 35 batters (3.3/9) for a 1.611 WHIP while striking out 81 batters (7.7/9).  While Kelly struggled, he showed flashes of his enormous potential and had a few good outings, including a three-start run from July 11 through July 21, where he totaled 15 strikeouts in 17.2 innings, allowing 19 hits and only walking four batters while putting up a 2.55 ERA.  Kelly was shut down for the month of August after straining the Latissimus Dorsi in his back.

Source: Wikipedia

After the season, Kelly went to the Arizona Fall League to pick up some extra starts.  Kelly pitched 16 innings across four starts in the extremely hitter-friendly AFL, putting up a 6.75 ERA that was heavily colored by one particularly bad start on October 25.  Kelly put up a 2.57 ERA in his other three starts, showcasing his talent against much older competition.  After the season, Kelly was the key piece to Boston’s acquisition of slugging first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, going to San Diego along with Anthony Rizzo, Reymond Fuentes, and Eric Patterson.

After the trade, Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein ranked Kelly the #1 prospect in the San Diego Padres’ organization and #48 in all of baseball, stating that Kelly “shows the potential for three average to plus pitches to go with plus command and control,” but that Kelly was “in over his head at Double-A” in 2010 and needs to be more aggressive with his pitching.  Baseball America Ranked Kelly the #1 prospect in the Padres’ organization and #31 prospect in baseball, naming Kelly the pitcher in the Padres’ organization with the “Best Curveball.”  Due to the timing of the trade, Kelly was also rated to have the “Best Curveball” in the Red Sox organization, as the Red Sox’s ranking came out prior to the trade, but the Padres’ ranking came out after the trade.

In 2011, Kelly was invited to the Padres’ spring training as a non-roster invitee with the expectation that he would open the season in the minor leagues after a view into the life of a Major Leaguer and a full welcoming to the San Diego Padres’ organization.  While in the Padres camp Kelly put up a respectable 3.00 ERA in 9 innings and 4 appearances, with one start.

Kelly was assigned to the San Antonio Missions for the 2011 season, back in AA but now in the Texas League.  Kelly’s results improved considerably, putting up a 3.98 ERA across 27 starts over 142.2 innings, striking out 105 (6.6/9) while allowing 153 hits (9.7/9) and 46 walks (2.9/9) for a 1.398 WHIP.  After the season, Baseball America ranked Kelly the #3 prospect in the Padres’ organization (behind Anthony Rizzo and Rymer Liriano) and the #76 prospect in baseball.  Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein echoed BA’s drop, ranking Kelly the #7 prospect in the Padres’ organization and the #78 prospect in baseball.  Goldstein expressed concern regarding Kelly’s lack of development and downgrading Kelly’s potential from a #2 or #3 to a #3 or a #4 in a rotation.

Back in the Padres’ spring training camp for 2012, Kelly looked like a new pitcher, putting up a 1.74 ERA across 20.2 innings while striking out 18 and only walking two, while drawing rave reviews  On March 14, Kelly threw three shutout innings against the Cincinnati Reds, giving up five hits and striking out four without walking a single batter.  In his first two starts, Kelly threw five shutout innings without giving up a walk, fanning six.  Kelly’s performance continued when he was assigned to the Tuscon Padres, the Padres’ AAA affiliate in the Pacific Coast League.  In his first two starts, Kelly went six innings in both games.  In the first game, Kelly allowed seven hits and three runs, striking out five.  In his second start, Kelly allowed five hits and zero runs, striking out nine while hitting one batter.  Prior to his third start Kelly experienced soreness in his right elbow and traveled to San Diego to have Padres’ team doctors perform an examination and get an MRI.  Padres’ manager Bud Black said that there was no structural damage and Kelly merely had inflammation around the elbow.  The Padres were going to be cautious and give Kelly a few weeks of rest before starting a throwing program to see how the elbow would respond, before even thinking about returning Kelly to Tuscon.  As the North County Times has reported,  Kelly, who was shut down with arm problems after two starts at Double-A San Antonio, has resumed throwing.

So what is going to come of Kelly?  2012 had become a “make or break” year for Kelly, as he needed to finally justify his draft status and bonus at a level above A-ball, which he was finally doing before he hurt his elbow.  Currently resting his elbow, Kelly should start playing catch soon, but having no news for more than two weeks after being “close” is worrisome.   Kelly could be the perfect #2 pitcher to slot behind an ace (or be the ace on most teams), but an injury would set him back significantly, not to even discuss potentially ending his status as an elite prospect and moving him to the “let’s see where he is in two years” group.  As it looks, Kelly will be back in AAA shortly, with a possible September call-up in the works.  What do we expect?  I would say Kelly is a pretty good bet to be a rotation mainstay for a long time, but TINSTAAPP.

Until next time, follow me @HypeProspect.

Sources:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=kelly-001cas

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?year_ID=2008&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&q

http://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/34506

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prosp

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa454391&position=P

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=sa454391&position=P

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=Casey-Kelly-1

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/3/15/2874736/prospect-notes-march-15-2012

http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120417&content_id=28881722&noteb

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/futures-game/2009/268533.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latissimus_dorsi_muscle

http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/content/printer_friendly/bos/y2009/m09/d29/c7224076.jsp

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?topic_id=7962336&content_id=7150939

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qsji6tI9E3A

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120506&content_id=30564768&notebook_id=30564772&vkey=notebook_sd&c_id=sd

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8444

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15662

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16020

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13078

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10142

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8506

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12823

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9762

Post Hype Prospect – Kerry Wood – @KerryWood

On Friday morning, word leaked out that Kerry Wood would be announcing his retirement but remain available to pitch for the Chicago Cubs during their weekend series against the Chicago White Sox.  This announcement brought about reminiscing about Wood’s career and the Chicago Cubs, and much consternation regarding Dusty Baker.

The career of Kerry Wood began before the Cubs drafted him in 1995, with Wood’s senior season at South Grand Prairie High School in Grand Prairie, Texas.  Wood posted a sparkling 14-0 record with a 0.77 ERA and 152 strikeouts in 81.1 innings, routinely packing the stands with scouts and baseball fans.  Wood verbally committed to nearby Texas Christian University, ratcheting up the stress of baseball teams, warning that he may go to college instead of entering professional baseball.

Viewed as a top prospect, scouts from many of the top teams watched Wood’s final start before the draft.  Wood’s ended up throwing 175 pitches in a doubleheader, putting the professional baseball scouting community in an uproar.  Wood, his father Garry, and Coach Mike McGilvray defended the pitch count, pointing out that this was not the first time Wood had thrown this much on a single day.  The Chicago Cubs drafted Wood with the 4th pick of the 1995 Rule IV draft behind Darin Erstad (#1/California Angels), Ben Davis (#2/San Diego Padres), and Jose Cruz, Jr. (#3/Seattle Mariners).  Despite the concerns over being overworked while in high school, the Cubs gave Wood a $1.2 million signing bonus and assigned Wood to the Rookie Level GCL Cubs in the Gulf Coast League.  Wood started one game and pitched three innings, walking one and striking out two, while not allowing a hit.  After the game, Wood was sent to the Short Season A Williamsport Cubs of the New York Penn League.  In Williamsport, Wood struggled, starting two games and allowing eight runs (five earned) over 4.1 innings, walking five, striking out five, and allowing five hits.

After the season, the accolades rolled in.  Baseball America ranked Wood the #16 prospect in all of baseball (between Bartolo Colon and Rey Ordonez) and the third-best prospect from the 1995 draft (Erstad #4, Davis #10, with Cruz #23).   In 1996, Wood was assigned to the Daytona Cubs of the High A Florida State League, where he dominated his opponents with a 2.91 ERA across 114.1 innings, striking out 136 and allowing only 72 hits.  On the flip side, Wood walked 70 batters, hit 14 more, balked 7 times, and threw 10 wild pitches, displaying wavering command that would often plague him throughout his career.  Unconcerned, Baseball America rated Wood the #3 prospect in all of baseball after the 1996 season, behind only Andruw Jones and Vladimir Guerrero, and ahead of Matt White and Travis Lee (as a side note the #100 prospect was Livan Hernandez, who would have the most impact on the 1997 season of all of the prospects).  Wood was selected as the Chicago Cubs Minor League Player of the Year.

In 1997, Wood began the season with the AA Orlando Rays, putting up a 4.50 ERA across 19 starts and 94 innings, striking out 106 (10.1/9), but walking 79 (7.6/9) while hitting 10 more batters.  Despite the mediocre numbers, Wood’s pure stuff impressed sufficiently to earn him a promotion to the AAA Iowa Cubs of the American Association, where he put up a 4.68 ERA across 10 starts and 57.2 innings, striking out 80 (12.5/9), but walking 52 (8.1/9) while hitting six batters.  For the season, Wood put up a 4.57 ERA across 29 starts and 151.2 innings, striking out 186 (11.0/9) while walking 131 (7.8/9), while hitting 16 batters, balking six times, and throwing 18 wild pitches.   Despite the scary walk numbers and high ERA, Wood’s season earned rave reviews as he struck out 186 batters despite turning 20 during the season.  Baseball America ranked Wood the #4 prospect in baseball, behind Ben Grieve, Paul Konerko, and Adrian Beltre.

In 1998, Wood made one start for the Iowa Cubs (now of the Pacific Coast League, as the old AA folded), striking out 11 in five innings, walking two and allowing one hit and zero runs.  On April 12, Wood made his debut for the Chicago Cubs, striking out seven, walking three, allowing four hits and four runs over 4.2 innings while picking up the loss.  In his second start, Wood again struck out seven, walked three, and allowed four hits, but did not allow a run over five innings, picking up his first major league win.  Wood got shelled in his third start, allowing seven runs in 1.2 innings, but bounced back in his fourth start, striking out nine across seven innings while picking up his second win.

Wood’s fifth major league start has become the thing of legends.  On May 6, Wood struck out 20 Houston Astros, a team led by Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, and Moises Alou, while allowing only one hit and hitting one batter (shockingly, it was Craig Biggio).  This was only the third time a pitcher had struck out 20 in a single game, after Roger Clemens did it in 1986 and 1996, and the first time a National League pitcher struck out 20, breaking the record of 19 held by Tom Seaver, Steve Carlton, and David Cone.  Wood threw 84 strikes and 38 balls while dominating the Astros (lost in the story is the complete game loss by Shane Reynolds, who struck out an impressive 10).  How dominating was Wood that day?

With the sudden attention, Wood pitched well through August.  After throwing 133 pitches on August 26 and 116 pitches on August 31, Wood woke up on September 1 with his elbow throbbing.  Despite being in the middle of a pennant race, Wood did not pitch again until game 3 of the National League Division Series, going 5 innings and allowing only one run, against the Atlanta Braves.

For the season, Wood put up an impressive 3.40 ERA (129 ERA+) across 26 starts and 166.2 innings, striking out 233 batters.  Wood led the Major Leagues by allowing only 6.3 hits per 9 innings pitched and 12.6 strike outs per 9 innings pitched.   Wood won the NL Rookie of the Year, beating out Colorado’s Todd Helton 128-119.

During spring training in 1999, Wood was still experiencing a sore elbow and was diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament which would require ulnar collateral ligament replacement surgery, more commonly known as Tommy John Surgery.  After surgery, Wood missed all of 1999 and came back firing in 2000.  After three starts in the minor leagues to start the season, Wood made his return to the Cubs on May 2, allowing only one run over six innings against the Houston Astros.  Often pitching on extra rest, Wood struggled, putting up a 4.80 ERA across 137 innings, striking out 132 and walking 92 batters.

Wood increased his workload in 2001, with 174.1 innings across 28 starts, striking out 217 to go with a sparkling a 3.36 ERA and a 124 ERA+.  In 2002, Wood was back to a full workload, with 213.2 innings over 33 starts, striking out 217 batters and walking 97, while putting up a 3.66 ERA.

In 2003, Wood, paired with second-year fireballer Mark Prior, and rising star Carlos Zambrano, Wood threw 211 innings across 32 starts, striking out a Major League-leading 266 batters (Prior was second with 245), putting up a 3.20 ERA (136 ERA+) to go with a career high 100 walks and 21 hit batsmen.  Wood logged another 17.2 innings in the playoffs over four starts, striking out 31 while walking 14, as the Cubs lost to the eventual World Series Champion Florida Marlins.  Wood’s 2003 season, while amazing, was an incredible example of the use, or complete lack of use, of pitch counts.  The Cubs new manager, Dusty Baker, had Wood, along with Prior, throw an inordinate number of games with more than 120 pitches, 13, and Wood threw at least 101 pitches 25 times.  Wood threw a season-high 141 pitches on May 10 against the St. Louis Cardinals.  More amazingly, Wood threw 952 pitches in 8 starts from April 6 through May 15 and 728 pitches in his final six starts of the season.  All in all, Wood threw 4,008 pitches in 36 starts (playoffs included) in 2003, an average of 111.3 pitches per start.

In 2004, Wood had a good season (3.72 ERA) but only pitched 140.1 innings across 2 starts, as he was sidelined for nearly two months with a strained triceps.  In 2005, Wood missed time with right shoulder bursitis, a joint problem caused by repetitive movement and excessive pressure.  Wood missed all of May, made only one start in July, and became a middle reliever for August before being shut down for the season at the end of August.   At the end of August, Wood had surgery to reinforce his labrum and debride his rotator cuff and bursa sac in order to remove dead tissue to promote healing.   In March 2006, Wood had surgery on the meniscus in his right knee during spring training.  After two rehabilitation starts in the minor leagues, Wood made his 2006 Major League debut  on May 18 against the Washington Nationals.  Wood made four starts, putting up a 4.12 ERA over 19.2 innings before being shut down for the season with a partially torn rotator cuff.  After the season, the Cubs decided not to exercise their option on Wood for 2007, choosing instead to pay Wood $1.3 million and make him a free agent.

With Wood’s injury history, the best offer was to return to the Cubs in 2007 as a relief pitcher for a 1-year, $1.75 million contract with a significant number of performance bonuses.  After missing time in training camp with a triceps strain, and was put on the disabled list at the beginning of the season with right shoulder inflammation.  Wood made eight successful rehabilitation appearances in the minor leagues before being activated from the DL and making his debut on August 5, allowing one hit and striking out one in one inning against the New York Mets.  Wood pitched well in his relief role, putting up a 3.33 ERA over 24.1 innings across 24 games in August and September.

After the season, Wood filed for free agency and received offers from a number of teams, but remained with the Cubs by signing a one-year, $4.2 million deal.  Wood pitched well in 2008, putting up a 3.41 ERA (141 ERA+), while striking out 84 batters in 66.1 innings, making 65 appearances and raking up 34 saves.

In November 2008, the Cubs signed Kevin Gregg to close games, causing Wood to look elsewhere.  Wood signed a two-year, $20.5 million contract with the Cleveland Indians, with a $11 million option for 2011 that vested if Wood finished 55 games in 2009 or 2010.  In 2009, Wood was, literally, a league average pitcher with a great strikeout rate.  Wood had a league-average 4.25 ERA with 63 strike outs in 55 innings (10.3/9) while picking up 20 saves.  In 2010,  Wood was getting shelled during his time with the Indians, with a 6.30 ERA before he was traded to the New York Yankees for Andrew Shive and Matt Cusick.  Wood dominated in his time in the Bronx, putting up a microscopic 0.69 ERA while striking out 31 batters in 26 innings.  Wood allowed only 4.8 hits per nine innings pitched, the lowest total of his career.

After 2010, Wood returned to the Cubs with a 1-year $1.5 million contract and pitched well, putting up a solid-if-not-spectacular 3.35 ERA in 51 innings across 55 appearances while pitching in relief.  After signing another 1-year contract worth $3 million with the Cubs, Wood struggled in 2012, with an 8.64 ERA in nine appearances.

But today, on May 18, rumors of Wood’s retirement have stoked the fires of past potential.  Once nearly universally viewed as the next great power pitcher in the mold of fellow-Texan Nolan Ryan, Wood struggled with arm problems and chronic misuse at the hands of his managers.  We should not place all of the blame on them, however, as the job of a Major League manager is to win and their overuse of Wood was due to his ability to maintain velocity late in games.  Many often take a pot shop at  Dusty Baker, and his amazing overuse absolutely deserves some of the blame, but Jim Riggleman did the same thing in 1998, as Wood had eight outings with at least 120 pitches and 21 outings with at least 100 pitches.

So what do we learn from Kerry Wood?  Should pitchers be babied?  Was it an issue with his throwing motion?  Is there really no such thing as a pitching prospect?  I think it is all of them – the human arm was not meant to pitch like Ryan did and managers must be careful, but at the same time pitching is an inherently risky activity.  Well built pitchers with seemingly perfect throwing motions break down before they can become stars and undersized pitchers with unorthodox throwing motions can dominate while winning multiple Cy Young Awards and remaining healthy.

In the end, no one knows what to do so maybe it makes sense to do what Riggleman and Baker did – overuse pitchers to try to win a World Series, because flags fly forever.

Until next time, follow me @HypeProspect.

Sources:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/woodke02.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=wood–001ker

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?year_ID=1995&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round

http://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/28262

http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=134268#gameType=%27R%27&sectionType=career&statType=2&season=2012&level=%27ALL%27

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/chi-kerry-wood-announces-retirement-report-20120518,0,5284008.story

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/all-time.html

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=304&position=P

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=Kerry-Wood

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=woodke02&t=p&year=1998

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/HOU/1998.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CHN/CHN199805060.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/1998-pitching-leaders.shtml

http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/MISC/XOP.htm (Scroll down)

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2003-pitching-leaders.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=woodke02&t=p&year=2005

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=woodke02&t=p&year=2007

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 477 other followers

%d bloggers like this: