Results tagged ‘ 2008 MLB Draft ’
Post Hype Prospect – Casey Kelly – @IamCaseyKelly
Every once in a while an athlete so talented comes out of high school who has the natural ability to play two premium positions. Often, those athletes are stars in multiple sports, whose natural talents and flashes of brilliance mask a lack of feel for playing baseball, with those athletes later failing to succeed at any level due to an ability to turn those physical tools into baseball playing ability. Out of Sarasota High School in Sarasota, Florida, one of those athletes was the 2008 first round pick (#30 overall) of the Boston Red Sox, Casey Kelly. Kelly was viewed as a top prospect both as a shortstop and a pitcher, along with being a good enough quarterback to get a scholarship offer from the University of Tennessee. Video of Kelly’s reaction to being drafted:
Kelly, who was named Mr. Baseball Florida for 2008, quickly signed with the Red Sox, agreeing to a $3 million signing bonus, the seventh largest in the 2008 draft class, behind only Buster Posey (#5/Giants), Tim Beckham (#1/Rays), Pedro Alvarez (#2/Pirates), Eric Hosmer (#3/Royals), Justin Smoak (#11/Rangers), and Brian Matusz (#4/Orioles). Kelly was sent to the Rookie Level GCL Red Sox, where he played shortstop and hit poorly, putting up a 215/255/331 line in 36 games before being promoted to the Short Season A Lowell Spinners of the New York Penn League, where he played shortstop and hit well, putting up a 344/344/563 line. Despite the poor showing, Kelly was still viewed as an elite prospect, with Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus calling Kelly “the most talented two-way player available in the draft,” while raving about Kelly’s power potential, good defensive range and instincts, and plus-plus (70 on the 20-80 scale) arm. Goldstein dinged Kelly for his tendency to chase pitches and generally unrefined game. Goldstein ranked Kelly #6 in the Red Sox system. Baseball America generally agreed, expressing similar concerns and ranked Kelly the #6 prospect in the Red Sox system, naming Kelly as the pitcher with the “Best Curveball” in the Red Sox’s organization.
For 2009, the Red Sox struck a deal with Kelly. The Red Sox wanted Kelly to solely focus on being a pitcher while Kelly preferred to play every day and remain a shortstop. Kelly would be a pitcher for approximately half of the season and then play shortstop for the duration of the season. After the season, there would be a discussion between the Red Sox and Kelly regarding Kelly’s future based upon potential and results. Kelly was assigned to the Greenville Drive of the A Level South Atlantic League, where he absolutely dominated, putting up a 1.12 ERA over 9 starts and 48.1 innings, striking out 39 batters while slowing 32 hits and walking only nine batters. After being named to the South Atlantic League All-Star Team, Kelly was promoted to the High A Salem Red Sox of the Carolina League, Kelly continued to excel, putting up a 3.09 ERA over 8 starts and 46.2 innings, striking out 35 while allowing 33 hits and only seven walks. At this point, Kelly became a shortstop, putting up a 214/290/464 line while back in the Rookie Level Gulf Coast League and a putrid 224/305/313 line while playing for the Greenville Drive of the South Atlantic League. During the 2009 season, Kelly also appeared in the Futures Game for the United States team, pitching one inning and allowing no base runners on nine pitches, six of them strikes.
After the 2009 season, Kelly drew rave reviews for his pitching and was named the Boston Red Sox Minor League Pitcher of the Year. Baseball America ranked Kelly the #2 prospect in the Red Sox’s system (behind Ryan Westmoreland) and the #24 prospect in all of Baseball. Baseball America named Kelly the pitcher in the Red Sox’s organization with the “Best Fastball,” “Best Curveball,” “Best Changeup,” and “Best Control;” also naming Kelly the #6 prospect in the Carolina League and the #2 prospect in the South Atlantic League. Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein generally agreed with Baseball America, ranking Kelly the #2 prospect in the Red Sox’s system (behind Westmoreland) and the #30 prospect in all of Baseball. Goldstein commented how advanced Kelly was as a pitcher, with “excellent sink and run” on an 89-93 mile per hour fastball, an already “plus” curveball, and a developing changeup that looked like it would become a plus offering. Additionally, Goldstein noted Kelly’s athleticism and his “smooth, repeatable, and effortless” delivery. After the season, it was agreed that Kelly would no longer play shortstop and would focus his energy on becoming a pitcher full-time.
Kelly pitching in the Futures Game:
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?topic_id=7962336&content_id=7150939
In 2010, Kelly appeared in two spring training games for the Red Sox, putting up a 3.60 ERA across five innings in his first appearance against big league hitters. Below is video of Kelly pitching against Northeastern University:
For the 2010 season, Kelly was aggressively assigned to the Portland Sea Dogs of the AA Eastern League, where Kelly struggled significantly, putting up a 5.31 ERA across 95 innings in 21 starts, averaging under 4.2 innings per start. Kelly allowed 118 hits (11.2/9) and walked 35 batters (3.3/9) for a 1.611 WHIP while striking out 81 batters (7.7/9). While Kelly struggled, he showed flashes of his enormous potential and had a few good outings, including a three-start run from July 11 through July 21, where he totaled 15 strikeouts in 17.2 innings, allowing 19 hits and only walking four batters while putting up a 2.55 ERA. Kelly was shut down for the month of August after straining the Latissimus Dorsi in his back.
Source: Wikipedia
After the season, Kelly went to the Arizona Fall League to pick up some extra starts. Kelly pitched 16 innings across four starts in the extremely hitter-friendly AFL, putting up a 6.75 ERA that was heavily colored by one particularly bad start on October 25. Kelly put up a 2.57 ERA in his other three starts, showcasing his talent against much older competition. After the season, Kelly was the key piece to Boston’s acquisition of slugging first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, going to San Diego along with Anthony Rizzo, Reymond Fuentes, and Eric Patterson.
After the trade, Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein ranked Kelly the #1 prospect in the San Diego Padres’ organization and #48 in all of baseball, stating that Kelly “shows the potential for three average to plus pitches to go with plus command and control,” but that Kelly was “in over his head at Double-A” in 2010 and needs to be more aggressive with his pitching. Baseball America Ranked Kelly the #1 prospect in the Padres’ organization and #31 prospect in baseball, naming Kelly the pitcher in the Padres’ organization with the “Best Curveball.” Due to the timing of the trade, Kelly was also rated to have the “Best Curveball” in the Red Sox organization, as the Red Sox’s ranking came out prior to the trade, but the Padres’ ranking came out after the trade.
In 2011, Kelly was invited to the Padres’ spring training as a non-roster invitee with the expectation that he would open the season in the minor leagues after a view into the life of a Major Leaguer and a full welcoming to the San Diego Padres’ organization. While in the Padres camp Kelly put up a respectable 3.00 ERA in 9 innings and 4 appearances, with one start.
Kelly was assigned to the San Antonio Missions for the 2011 season, back in AA but now in the Texas League. Kelly’s results improved considerably, putting up a 3.98 ERA across 27 starts over 142.2 innings, striking out 105 (6.6/9) while allowing 153 hits (9.7/9) and 46 walks (2.9/9) for a 1.398 WHIP. After the season, Baseball America ranked Kelly the #3 prospect in the Padres’ organization (behind Anthony Rizzo and Rymer Liriano) and the #76 prospect in baseball. Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein echoed BA’s drop, ranking Kelly the #7 prospect in the Padres’ organization and the #78 prospect in baseball. Goldstein expressed concern regarding Kelly’s lack of development and downgrading Kelly’s potential from a #2 or #3 to a #3 or a #4 in a rotation.
Back in the Padres’ spring training camp for 2012, Kelly looked like a new pitcher, putting up a 1.74 ERA across 20.2 innings while striking out 18 and only walking two, while drawing rave reviews On March 14, Kelly threw three shutout innings against the Cincinnati Reds, giving up five hits and striking out four without walking a single batter. In his first two starts, Kelly threw five shutout innings without giving up a walk, fanning six. Kelly’s performance continued when he was assigned to the Tuscon Padres, the Padres’ AAA affiliate in the Pacific Coast League. In his first two starts, Kelly went six innings in both games. In the first game, Kelly allowed seven hits and three runs, striking out five. In his second start, Kelly allowed five hits and zero runs, striking out nine while hitting one batter. Prior to his third start Kelly experienced soreness in his right elbow and traveled to San Diego to have Padres’ team doctors perform an examination and get an MRI. Padres’ manager Bud Black said that there was no structural damage and Kelly merely had inflammation around the elbow. The Padres were going to be cautious and give Kelly a few weeks of rest before starting a throwing program to see how the elbow would respond, before even thinking about returning Kelly to Tuscon. As the North County Times has reported, Kelly, who was shut down with arm problems after two starts at Double-A San Antonio, has resumed throwing.
So what is going to come of Kelly? 2012 had become a “make or break” year for Kelly, as he needed to finally justify his draft status and bonus at a level above A-ball, which he was finally doing before he hurt his elbow. Currently resting his elbow, Kelly should start playing catch soon, but having no news for more than two weeks after being “close” is worrisome. Kelly could be the perfect #2 pitcher to slot behind an ace (or be the ace on most teams), but an injury would set him back significantly, not to even discuss potentially ending his status as an elite prospect and moving him to the “let’s see where he is in two years” group. As it looks, Kelly will be back in AAA shortly, with a possible September call-up in the works. What do we expect? I would say Kelly is a pretty good bet to be a rotation mainstay for a long time, but TINSTAAPP.
Until next time, follow me @HypeProspect.
Sources:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=kelly-001cas
http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?year_ID=2008&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&q
http://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/34506
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prosp
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa454391&position=P
http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=sa454391&position=P
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=Casey-Kelly-1
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/3/15/2874736/prospect-notes-march-15-2012
http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120417&content_id=28881722¬eb
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/futures-game/2009/268533.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latissimus_dorsi_muscle
http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/content/printer_friendly/bos/y2009/m09/d29/c7224076.jsp
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?topic_id=7962336&content_id=7150939
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qsji6tI9E3A
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8444
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15662
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16020
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13078
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10142
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8506
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12823
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9762
Brett Lawrie – Post Hype Prospect – @blawrie13
Two days ago, Brett Lawrie was facing Fernando Rodney and had worked the count to 3-1. Rodney threw the fifth pitch of the at bat, which was, according to PitchFX data, was slightly more than one foot outside. Lawrie, assuming the pitch would be correctly called, dropped his bat and began trotting to first base. Buck Martinez, the Blue Jays’ play-by-play announcer stated “ball four.” Alas, home plate umpire Bill Miller had other ideas, calling the pitch a strike. Lawrie returned to the batter’s box with an astonished look on his face. Martinez stated “Wow!” in astonishment after the call.
Rodney fired again, throwing a high change-up which, again, Lawrie took and headed to first base. Again, Miller called the pitch a strike, thereby causing Lawrie to strike out. At that point, Lawrie absolutely lost his mind. Lawrie protested, screaming at Miller and threw his helmet against the ground, ricocheting off the dirt and hitting (it did more than graze) Miller in the leg. The video says it all:
Of course, while his reaction was inexcusable, the last two pitches were not strikes, at least according to MLB’s own PitchFX data.
Source: BrooksBaseball.net
Lawrie’s reaction was not particularly surprising, as reports of his attitude have been split, with some praising his intensity and desire to succeed while others have questioned his maturity and desire. Of course, it all goes back to the beginning, when Brett Lawrie was drafted by the Milwaukee Brewers.
Brett R. Lawrie, a catching prospect out of Langley, British Columbia, was viewed as one of the top prospects in the draft. Lawrie’s exploits were legendary: plus hit tool, plus raw power, plus arm, and plus athleticism. Lawrie was drafted with the 16th pick of the 2008 Major League Baseball Rule IV Draft by the Milwaukee Brewers. Prior to the draft, Lawrie was awarded the Top Hitter Award (.469 batting average), Home Runs Award (3), and Most RBI in the Tournament (16), while playing in the 2008 World Junior Baseball Championship in Edmonton, Alberta. Lawrie was named the starting catcher on the tournament All-World team and joined the Canadian National Baseball team to prepare for the Beijing Olympics. Lawrie was not as successful in Beijing, going 0-10 in six games, with two strike outs and two RBI.
Lawrie signed with the Brewers for a $1.6 million signing bonus and the accolades began rolling in. Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein called Lawrie “an excellent natural hitter,” in ranking him the #2 prospect in the Brewers’ system, behind Alcides Escobar, and #57 overall, between Jordan Zimmerman and (fellow Brewer farmhand) Mat Gamel. Baseball America ranked Lawrie The #3 prospect in the Brewers’ system, behind Escobar and Gamel, and the #81 prospect in all of baseball. Baseball America, clearly impressed with his time on the Canadian Junior National team, named Lawrie the “Best Power Hitter” in the Brewers’ system prior to a single professional at bat.
Lawrie was assigned to the Full Season A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers, the Brewers’ affiliate in the Midwest League, where he put up a respectable 274/348/454 line in 105 games before being promoted to the Huntsville Stars, the Brewers’ AA affiliate in the Southern League. Lawrie struggled in his 13-game trial at AA, putting up a 269/283/308 line while getting caught stealing twice and striking out 14 times. Despite being drafted as a catcher and the Brewers publicly stating they wanted to keep him behind the plate, Lawrie exclusively played second base in 2009. Despite the on-field success, there were many small clashes behind the scenes as Lawrie felt that the Brewers were trying to reign in his personality.
After the season, the accolades poured in, with Lawrie being named the #2 prospect by Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus (again behind Escobar) and #99 overall. While Goldstein praised Lawrie’s offensive abilities, there was much consternation over Lawrie’s defense at second base. Baseball America was more optimistic, also ranking Lawrie the #2 prospect in the Brewers’ system, but ranking Lawrie the #59 prospect in all of baseball. Baseball America called Lawrie the “Best Hitter for Average” and “Best Power Hitter” in the Brewers’ organization, along with the #4 prospect in the Midwest League for 2009.
In 2010, Lawrie returned to the Hunsville Stars, putting up a 285/346/451 line as the 10th youngest player in the Southern League. After the season, Lawrie felt that he deserved a cup of coffee in the Major Leagues when rosters were expanded in September, but the Brewers asked Lawrie to go to the Arizona Fall League for additional playing time. Lawrie declined. The Brewers tried to encourage Lawrie to go to Arizona, dangling the carrot of an invitation to Spring Training, but Lawrie again demurred.
In December 2010, the Brewers, in full “win now” mode and looking to bolster their starting pitching depth, dealt Lawrie to the Toronto Blue Jays for Shaun Marcum. SBNation’s Brew Crew Ball viewed the trade positively, calling Marcum “easily #2 caliber, if not a borderline #1″, stating that the trade is one that’s “going to work out well for the Crew.” While the writer at Brew Crew Ball, Jordan M, was clearly a fan of Marcum, he underestimated how good Lawrie would become and severly overstating the value of Mat Gamel.
Blue Jays fans were excited at the prospect of rooting for their native-born son as he played in Toronto. About the prospect of being dealt to Toronto (which is actually farther from his B.C. home), Lawrie said:
It was very exciting for me being a Canadian kid. It’s a great feeling to come back to Canada and have the Canadian flag on my chest again. It’s the first time I’ve felt welcome in a long time.
Lawrie also indicated that the Blue Jays did not view him as a second baseman, saying that he’s been working out at third base at the direction of the Blue Jays, with the idea being a move to third base permanently. As occurred twice before, the accolades rolled in with Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus saying Lawrie “has the tools to be a star,” who is “an excellent pure hitter with plenty of strength,” while highlighting Lawrie’s 60 extra base hits, but dinging Lawrie for his defensive woes and refusal to go to the Arizona Fall League while ranking Lawrie the #3 prospect in the Blue Jays’ system (behind Kyle Drabek and J.P. Arencibia) and the #57 prospect in all of baseball (between Braves flamethrowers Craig Kimbrel and Randall Delgado). Baseball America ranked Lawrie the #2 prospect in the Blue Jays organization (behind Drabek) and the #40 prospect in all of baseball.
Lawrie spent spring training with the Blue Jays, putting up a 293/326/488 line and fueling speculation that he would open the season in the Majors. Instead, Lawrie was sent to the Las Vegas 51s, the Blue Jays’ AAA affiliate in the Pacific Coast League. Lawrie opened the season by absolutely smoking the ball, putting up a 361/371/588 line in April and sitting with a 354/388/677 line at the end of the day on May 30. The buzz was building, with Blue Jays’ GM Alex Andropoulos hinting that Lawrie’s call up would be imminent, stating “Yeah, he’s close,” when asked if Lawrie would be up soon. Then, on May 31, Lawrie was hit on the back of his hand with a pitch, causing swelling. X-rays, taken at a local hospital only revealed a bruise, but Lawrie had difficulty gripping a bat and further tests indicated a broken bone in his left hand. Lawrie missed the next six weeks, making his return during a rehabilitation stint with the Dunedin Blue Jays in the High A Florida State League. Lawrie then returned to Las Vegas, where he put up a 348/410/609 line in 17 games before being called up to the Blue Jays.
Upon his call up, Lawrie became the starting third baseman for the Blue Jays, mashing to a 293/373/953 line with an impressive 151 OPS+ in 43 games, hitting eight doubles, four triples, and nine home runs. Lawrie also showcased his speed and talent on the base paths, stealing seven bases and only getting caught once. Lawrie hit an 11th inning walk-off home run on September 5 against the Red Sox, becoming the first player born in the 1990s to hit a walk off home run. Lawrie’s season was cut short when he broke his finger while taking infield practice prior to a game against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (which is in California) on September 21.
Lawrie began the 2012 season as the starting third baseman for the Blue Jays and was having a slow start, putting up a 281/325/384 line (92 OPS+) when the incident with Bill Miller occurred. The following day, it was announced that Lawrie would be suspended for four games for his actions.
But what will happen with Lawrie? Outside of the fine and suspension, nothing will happen to Lawrie. There are ample examples of players losingtheir minds while playing baseball, from George Brett
to the oddly-similar Jermaine Dye to the absolutely insane Izzy Alcantara video (I’m calling the video insane, though it appears the same could be said for Alcantara):
The only player who got anything worse than a few days off and it appears that George Brett was not even suspended for his attempt to kill Tim McClelland.
Will this impact Lawrie in the future? I doubt it will have any impact. Lawrie has always been viewed as an intense competitor with an unyielding desire to win at everything and beat everyone who gets in his way. Lawrie is, in short, the type of player who has an unyielding desire to be the best and has the #want to do everything he can do in order to succeed (legally, of course – I wouldn’t go all Pedro Gomez and suggest that he does anything illicit).
Was Lawrie’s reaction reprehensible? Yes; he acted like a petulant child. Does every fan want a player who wants to win that badly – and show that desire? Yes. Does this incident hurt Lawrie’s long term value? Not in the least bit.
Frankly, I think writers should stop being so hard on Lawrie; imagine if your boss made you do something and then told you it was terrible and that you’re being demoted even though you did a great job.
Also, in case you’re wondering, I think the Blue Jays absolutely fleeced the Brewers in the trade, as, while Marcum is a nice #3 pitcher, Lawrie has the talent and desire to become a superstar.
Until next time, follow me @HypeProspect.
Sources:
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2008/reports.jsp?content=lawrie
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=lawrie001bre
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lawribr01.shtml
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=Brett-Lawrie
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8347
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8506
http://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/35058
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10142
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10035
http://www.brewcrewball.com/2010/12/6/1859068/the-brett-lawrie-for-shaun-marcum-trade
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/marcush01.shtml
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12746
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13078
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5247&position=3B
http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=5247&position=3B&type=-1&gds=2011-04-07&gde=2011-08-03
http://blogs.thescore.com/mlb/2011/05/31/friday-with-lawrie/
http://sports.nationalpost.com/2011/05/31/super-prospect-lawrie-close-to-callup-jays-gm-says/
http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Brett_Lawrie
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TOR/TOR201109050.shtml
Post-Hype Prospect: Tim Beckham
Earlier this week, Tim Beckham, the shortstop prospect for the Tampa Bay Rays was suspended 50 games by Major League Baseball. Prior to this, Beckham has had an up-and-down ride that started with being the first overall pick in the 2008 draft.
Viewed as the best athlete with the best all-around set of tools who projected as a shortstop with power and speed, Beckham was taken first overall by the Tampa Bay Rays. Beckham signed for $6.15 million just two weeks after being picked and was assigned to the Princeton Rays, the Rays’ Rookie League affiliate in the Appalachian League. Beckham did not perform particularly well, putting up a 243/297/345 line and committing 13 errors in 171 chances at shortstop. Beckham also appeared in two games for the Hudson Valley Renegades (who play in the awesomely named Wappingers Falls, New York; where I once saw Peter Frampton play).
Nevertheless, prospect prognosticators were bullish on Beckham’s future. Baseball Prospectus‘ Kevin Goldstein ranked him #2 in the Rays system (behind David Price) and #15 overall (behind Giancarlo – then Mike – Stanton), and said that:
Beckham is the total package, and he’s drawn multiple comparisons to former MVP Barry Larkin. He has a good approach, excellent bat speed, projects for at least average power, and has plus speed. He’s a fluid defender with range, soft hands, and a strong arm.
Baseball America agreed, ranking Beckham #2 in the Rays system (again behind Price) and #28 overall (behind Matt LaPorta), and went even further, naming Beckham the “Best Hitter for Average” in the Rays system after the 2008 season.
Beckham was assigned to the A-level Bowling Green Hot Rods for the 2009 season and put up a 275/328/389 line while making 43 (!!!) errors at shortstop. Beckham was dinged accordingly, as Baseball America dropped him to the #6 prospect in the Rays organization and #67 prospect in all of baseball, though they did rate Beckham as having the “Best Infield Arm” in the Rays’ organization. Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus dropped Beckham comparably, dropping him to #6 in the Rays system (taking him down from a 5-star to a 4-star prospect), stating that Beckham was “less refined than expected” and “far too aggressive at the plate.” Goldstein ranked Beckham #56 overall (between Dan Hudson and Scott Sizemore) in his Top 101.
In 2010, Beckham failed to impress for a third straight year, putting up a 256/346/359 line while playing for the Charlotte Stone Crabs of the High A Florida State League. While Beckham’s walk rate increased, causing an increase in OBP despite a drop in batting average, he struggled at bat and in the field, making 25 errors while playing shortstop. Though scouts still saw the tools, Beckham was failing to actualize and his prospect status was dropping precipitously. Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein ranked Beckham the #18 prospect in the Rays’ system and took him off the Top 101 entirely. Baseball America responded in a consistent manner, ranking Beckham #15 in the Rays system and not ranking him in their Top 100. Some pundits went even further, with Matthew Pouliot of NBC Sports’ Hardball Talk noting that Beckham has not excelled at any point, and that it is becoming less likely that he will play shortstop in the Major Leagues.
2011 started off poorly for Beckham, as the Rays made a deal with the Cubs in January, sending Matt Garza with Zach Rosscup and Fernando Perez to Chicago for Chris Archer, Hak-Ju Lee, Robinson Chirinos, Sam Fuld, and Brandon Guyer. Hak-Ju Lee, a Korean-born shortstop noted for his defensive prowess, was viewed as the shortstop of the future in the Rays organization as very little was expected from Beckham. Beckham was assigned to play for the Montgomery Biscuits of the AA Southern League, with Lee playing for the Charlotte Stone Crabs in High A. For the first time, Beckham produced, putting up a 275/339/395 line across 107 games while showing improved defense at shortstop (despite the 20 errors), earning an August promotion to the AAA Durham Bulls of the International League. Beckham showed impressive power and a complete lack of plate discipline while playing for the Bulls, putting up a 255/282/462 line. Tim Beckham as a prospect was back. Beckham was bumped up to the #7 prospect in the Rays’ system by Baseball America and #9 by Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus. Jonathan Mayo of MLB showed faith in Beckham, ranking him the #91 overall prospect, stating that Beckham “[swung] a good bat across two levels,” the “power has started to come,” and he “made very good strides with his defense.”
Lee, however, was more impressive. After being ranked the #92 prospect by Baseball America and #65 overall by Baseball, Lee put up a robust 318/389/44 line over 97 games at Charlotte with scouts raving about his defense. When Beckham was promoted to AAA, Lee was promoted to AA, where he struggled with a 190/272/310 line across the final 24 games of the season. After the season, Lee was ranked the #44 prospect by Baseball America and #65 overall by Baseball Prospectus (additionally, ESPN’s Keith Law rated him #12 and MLB’s Jonathan Mayo rated him #46), putting him solidly on the upper echelon of prospects.
But what would this mean for Tim Beckham’s future? As it turned out, not a whole lot for the beginning of 2012. Beckham was sent back to AAA Durham and Lee was sent to AA Charlotte, with both struggling in the first few weeks, with Beckham putting up a putrid 204/290/278 line and Lee putting up a lackluster 243/306/333 line.
On Tuesday evening, Major League Baseball issued the following press release:
The Office of the Commissioner of Baseball announced today that Tampa Bay Rays Minor League shortstop Tim Beckham has received a 50-game suspension after a second violation of the Minor League Drug Prevention and Treatment Program for a drug of abuse.
The suspension of Beckham, who is currently on the roster of the Triple-A Durham Bulls of the International League, will be effective immediately.
What does this mean for Beckham? The most important thing to mention is that this was not steroids or amphetamines, as Beckham was not taking a drug to improve his performance. The second thing to mention is that this is Beckham’s second time testing positive for marijuana (as was specifically identified in the Rays’ Press Release). In the Press Release, Beckham stated:
“I regret that my poor judgment resulted in me letting my teammates and the Tampa Bay Rays organization down. I take full responsibility for my actions and I will use this experience to refocus my commitment to baseball. I recognize that I am blessed to be able to play baseball for a living. I owe it to my teammates, my family, and to myself to respect the game and the responsibilities that go with playing it as a professional. I am sorry.”
Rays Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman said:
“We are very disappointed by Tim’s actions. Tim possesses great potential, and he must rededicate himself in order to become the person and player we know he can be.”
The actions taken by a team in this situation is often directly related to the player’s status and future. The options are:
(1) Nothing. Allow the player to serve the suspension and return to the team.
(2) Immediate release.
(3) Demote or otherwise punish the player.
What will happen to Tim Beckham? This isn’t a situation similar to the Pittsburgh Drug Trials in the 1980′s, and will not have any substantial impact on professional baseball, or any sport whatsoever. Judging from Beckham’s contrite commends and Friedman’s statement, the Rays will do nothing. Beckham will merely serve his suspension and return to his job as the starting shortstop for the Durham Bulls. A knee-jerk release or other punishment could further stunt Beckham’s development, something teams rarely do to players in which they have invested in excess of $6 million.
What will be Beckham’s future? Beckham has all of the tools to be either a shortstop in the Major Leagues, a tiny subset of all players at any level in the minors, and is still only 22 years old. While he may spend time as a shortstop in the Major Leagues, I believe Beckham will never be more than a decent second baseman with a little bit of power and a few stolen bases. His defense will never be much above average and he may only end up as a utility infielder – hardly the goal of a team picking #1 overall.
Until next time, follow me @HypeProspect.
Sources:
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120501&content_id=30130328&vkey=pr_mlb&c_id=mlb
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8568
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8506
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/all-time.html
http://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/29318
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3452801
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9919
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13013
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/index.jsp
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=lee—001hak
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=beckha001tim
absaq23
Athletics Farm
chuckvanderbilt
cjohns56
PostHypeProspect
mimawhinney
Jonathan Mayo
Moe Koltun
nolimits16423
prospectd2j
scottyallenlaai
uchicagoboy
warehouseworthy
Jayne Hansen
