By Chuck Vanderbilt

For baseball fans that follow prospects closely, there are few days better than draft day. Tonight the 2012 MLB Draft will be televised on MLB Network at 7pm eastern. It’s easy for fans to get excited about the draft and speculate on the future of their favorite team. As a life long Astros fan, draft day has been marked on my calendar since the last regular season game of the 2011 season knowing that they would make the first selection in tonight’s draft. Being a fan of a team that lost 106 games in 2011, and is currently 7.5 games out of first in the NL Central, there will be few days during the 2012 season better than today.

Tonight’s draft allows fans of poorly performing teams, like myself, to take the focus off the current record or farm system rankings and instead allows us to look ahead at better days to come. However, drafting productive baseball players is far from a science. Despite the trending use of statistical formulas, algorithms, simulated projections, and heavy abacus usage, there are simply too many human elements that can’t be measured much less predicted.

Tonight Astros GM Jeff Luhnow and his team of scouts will have the pleasure of making the first selection in the 2012 MLB Draft, a previlage many general managers don’t want too often. While this could be considered a great situation to be in, it surely places Luhnow in a tight spot. With a depth chart that cries for immediate help, the Astros organization can not afford to be wrong with their draft selections, much less the first pick overall. Luhnow also has to weigh the decision to go with the popular philosophy of drafting the best talent available versus drafting a player that can quickly reach the Major Leagues. Either way, no one will really know if the decision that is made will be the right one for quite some time.

As the draft unfolds, fans must also keep in mind that first round picks are not locks to become solid Major League contributors. Plenty of prospects that were considered to be future stars fizzled out somewhere along the way. On the other hand, there have been plenty of players drafted in later rounds that have become perennial All-Stars. Whether your favorite team is in a state of rebuilding, or simply missing pieces to get over the hump, being right on draft day is necessary to have an organization that wins on a consistent basis.

With all that in mind, for tonight let’s sit back and watch as some of the game’s best college and prep prospects hear their name called and have their dreams realized. This will certainly be a night they won’t soon forget. For tomorrow, and each day after, check back with us here at The Futurists.

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By Chuck Vanderbilt

In the 2011 MLB Draft, college pitchers went in the first three picks with UCLA’s Gerrit Cole going first to the Pittsburgh Pirates. His teammate, the one who wore the faded blue UCLA hat, Trevor Bauer was drafted 3rd overall by the Arizona Diamondbacks. Bauer’s pitching ability and unique character has garnered the 6’1″ right-hander a lot of attention from the media and fans.

After starting the 2012 season dominating the Southern League, Bauer was promoted to AAA. In his three starts with the Reno Aces, Bauer has compiled 24 strike outs in just 19 innings while posting a 1.89 ERA. Those stats are impressive in their own right, but when you factor in the fact that two of Bauer’s three starts took place in Reno, a well-known offensive friendly park, those stats become all the more salty.

However, despite all the positive attention Bauer receives, his perceived lack of command has caused critics to begin the nitpicking process. They’ll point out that Bauer walks about 4 batters per 9 innings to substantiate the claim that Bauer doesn’t possess pinpoint command. They may also remind you that all those walks will surely lead to high pitch counts. However, if it’s the result that matters, critics are simply wasting their breath, ink, or keystroke.

Trevor Bauer has met all demands and expectations placed before him. We all must remember that walks and pitch counts are just a part of the equation. If those variables still add up to a victory, why harp on them? As the 2012 season unfolds, Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers will surely hear the cry to call up Bauer at an increasing volume. His ability, competitiveness, and intricacies make him the stand out that he is. It’s just a matter of time before we all fall in line behind Trevor Bauer.

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By Chuck Vanderbilt

Weather forecast for tonight: dark – George Carlin

On Tuesday I pictured Jordan Lyles waiting impatiently in a Philadelphia hotel room holding a cellphone while the Weather Channel filled the conditioned air. The possibility of rain was the only thing left to determine whether or not Lyles would make his second Major League start of 2012. If the rain came, Lyles would have made the trip to the City of Brotherly Love only to return to Oklahoma City without putting on the Astros uniform. If the rain passed, Lyles would make his 17th career start for the Houston Astros.

Once considered to be the top pitching prospect in the Astros farm system, Lyles has been given several opportunities to make an impression at the Major League level. The 21-year-old right hander started 15 games for Houston in 2011 and in 94 innings Lyles went 2-8 with a 5.36 ERA. During the 2011 season, Lyles at times showed signs of poise and confidence on the mound. However, most of the time hitters were able to take advantage of the 6’4″ pitcher’s inexperience.

Jordan Lyles does not have an overpowering fastball. In fact, Lyles doesn’t seem to have an overpowering pitch at all. What the South Carolina native does possess is the ability to pitch smart and compete. While he may not be the front of the rotation starter Houston desperately needs, Lyles does have the tools and mental toughness to be a Major League starting pitcher.

Jordan Lyles started the 2012 season with Astros’ AAA team in Oklahoma City. In his time with the RedHawks this season, Lyles is 5-0 with a 3.49 ERA. On April 29th, Lyles was called up to make a start for Houston. At that point, Lyles had four AAA starts. In those four starts, Lyles gave up one more earned run than in the previous game. Lyles gave up just one earned run in the first game of the season, which led to two in the second, three in the third, and four in his fourth start.

In his first Major League start in 2012, Lyles pitched 6 innings giving up 3 earned runs. The result didn’t overly excite Houston higher-ups or fans and Lyles was sent back down to AAA. Upon his return, Lyles made his fifth start for the RedHawks. Can you guess how many earned runs he gave up? That’s right, five. It wasn’t until his sixth start on May 10th that Lyles broke the pattern. Though he gave up 8 hits in 6.2 innings, Lyles did not give up a single earned run.

On Tuesday, the weather obliged Lyles and allowed him to take the mound against the Philadelphia Phillies. Lyles pitched 6 innings in which he gave up 2 home runs, one of which was to former Astros star Hunter Pence. Despite giving up the home runs, Lyles remained focused and kept the Astros in the game. When Lyles left the game, the Astros were down 3-0. However, Houston found a way to tie the game 3-3 in the 9th inning before losing the game 4-3 in the 10th due to a walk off home run from Pence.

While Lyles is one of the best young pitchers in the Houston organization, how much time he will spend with the Astros this season is uncertain. Lyles did what management and fans should expect of him at any level, which is to battle and keep his team close. That’s all a young pitcher can do. If that’s all people expect of him, Lyles will be right as rain.

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By Chuck Vanderbilt

One thing that is said to be great about the game of baseball is that all kinds of people can play the sport. You can be tall and lean like Randy Johnson, or robust like John Kruk and be an effective Major League baseball player. Sure there are certain physical features scouts look for in prospects when deciding on what players to draft or promote. However, baseball is a skill based sport and if a player has the skill set, physique can be outplayed.

Yogi Berra once said of Craig Biggio – “Short catchers are better, because they don’t have to stand up as far.”

Jose Altuve was at one time officially listed by the Astros to be 5’7″, yet everyone who watched the young Venezuelan play knew it was lie. It’s hard not to compare Altuve’s physical stature when he is standing at first base next to players like 6’3″ Joey Votto of the Cincinnati Reds. The discrepancy became so apparent that the Astros changed Altuve’s official height to 5’5″. No matter what the 21-year-old, who turns 22 on May 6, physical measurements are, the simple fact is he plays the game of baseball well.

Altuve made his Major League debut in July of 2011 when the Astros called him up from AA Corpus Christi. That season, while in the Minors, Altuve earned honors such as being named to Baseball America’s Minor League All Star Team and was selected to represent the Astros organization at the Futures Game. While playing for the Corpus Christi Hooks in 2011, Altuve hit for a hefty .389 average and .591 slugging percentage. Clearly those kind of offensive numbers were too massive for the Astros to look over.

Let’s not forget his hustle. Altuve is one of those players that scouts, coaches, and fans alike can say plays the game the right way on daily basis. Upon being called up in 2011, Altuve went on a 7 game hitting streak to tie the franchise record for most consecutive games with a hit to start a career. In August of 2011 Altuve hit his first home run for the Astros. It didn’t come with a blooper that just cleared Minute Maid’s short porch in left. It also didn’t come from a deep blast to center. No sir, Jose Altuve earned that career first by hustling around the bases for an inside the park home run.

So far this season Altuve has continued to cast a large shadow in the batter’s box by putting up solid offensive numbers. Through 23 games this season, Altuve is hitting for a .367 average and has also shown signs of maturity at the plate. Altuve has garnered 8 walks in 90 at bats where as in 2011 the second baseman walked just 5 times in 221 plate appearances.

It’s no secret that the Astros are rebuilding their organization from top to bottom. If the franchise can continue to find diamonds in the rough, no matter how big, fans will see their team climbing out of the division cellar sooner than most believe.

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By Chuck Vanderbilt

In 2011 the Houston Astros lost 106 games. You could say that the organization needed to turn the page, or even throw out the whole book. In 2012 the franchise has a new owner, a new GM that actually wrote a new book on how to improve the organization, and a slew of new faces on the starting roster. As the 9-14 Astros are clearly still figuring things out on the diamond in Houston, what once was considered a bleak farm system now has a several bright spots.

Back in 2011, the Astros under GM Ed Wade traded fan favorite Hunter Pence to the Philadelphia Phillies for pitchers Jarred Cosart and Josh Zeid as well as potential power bats Jonathan Singleton and Domingo Santana. Both Cosart and Singleton immediately became the organization’s top two prospects and are currently proving that they belong at the top. While many Astros fans lamented the loss of Pence, they will soon find joy when Cosart and Singleton reach the big league roster.

Cosart, a right-handed pitcher at AA Corpus Christi, earned a spot on both the 2010 and 2011 Futures Game rosters. The 6’3″ hurler is currently 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA with a total of 13.1 innings pitched. The Texas native has also posted 13 strikeouts in as many innings.

Singleton, a left-handed first baseman, is also settling in at AA Corpus Christi quite well. Currently hitting .350 with 3 home runs and a .435 OBPfor the Hooks, Singleton is proving to be an offensive threat for opposing pitchers. However, Singleton will need to continue to improve against left-handed pitching as he currently possesses a .207 batting average against southpaws.

Most Astros fans realize that the new regime needs time to reload every level of the organization and develop young talent. While fans may be just now settling into a current roster of young faces like Jose Altuve and Jordan Schafer, they should not get too comfortable. It may not be long before fans see either Cosart or Singleton among others on the Astros roster.

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